$BTC There is a pattern in the historical bottoms.

Before a true bottom in a bear market,
the price will always fall below the realized price.
Not just once.
It happens in every cycle.
Realized Price can be understood as the average on-chain holding cost of the entire market; it’s not a simple moving average, but a core indicator measuring the overall market cost range.
In past Bitcoin bear markets, the real bottom generally appeared after the price fell below the realized price.
What does this indicate? It shows that in the final stage of a bear market, it’s not just about falling prices, but the market entering a “total loss” state.
Short-term buyers lose, long-term holders also start to feel pressure, panic, stop-losses, and passive selling occur together, ultimately washing chips from weak hands to strong hands.
Therefore, the realized price is not just a simple support level, but a very important psychological dividing line in bull and bear cycles.
When the price is above it, the market can still support itself on cost;
when the price drops below it, it means most chips are entering a pain zone, and true capitulation may occur.
But here’s also a note: falling below the realized price does not mean the bottom is reached on that day.
Historically, Bitcoin can stay below this line for a period, oscillate repeatedly, absorb buy orders, and shake out weak hands until selling pressure is digested, then gradually form a bottom structure.
So, when looking at Bitcoin now, you shouldn’t just focus on short-term rises and falls.
You need to see if it is reapproaching the overall market cost zone.
The real big opportunity often doesn’t appear when everyone is comfortable, but when most people no longer want to watch.
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