June 19 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

Fed policy pressure: The Fed keeps interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%. New Chair Kevin Warsh shows a clearly hawkish tilt; nearly half of officials support further tightening. Coupled with data such as CPI, this strengthens the dollar and increases selling pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin and the stock market fall in sync (S&P is also dragged down by concerns over rate hikes).

Stablecoins and institutional developments: The influence of stablecoins is increasing, but in the overall crypto market cap redistribution, BTC’s dominance still remains (BTC Dominance ~55-58%). Geopolitical/regulatory news (such as stablecoin regulations) provides some support, but negative sentiment dominates in the short term.

Others: Company actions such as MSTR (a small amount sold then repurchased) and options expiration (a large expiry on June 26, mostly OTM) increase volatility, but they do not trigger a systemic collapse.

Summary: Expectations of macro tightening are the main drag. In the short term, the news flow is bearish, but the long-term narrative of BTC as a macro hedge asset remains intact (especially under AI and adoption trends).

🤯 Capital flow:

Significant ETF outflows: Net outflows continue throughout June (from single-week to cumulative figures reaching hundreds of millions to tens of billions of dollars). For example, the record outflow pressure from late May to June (some reports mention $1.67B+ weekly outflows, with an even higher cumulative total). As of June 17, there was still ~55M in net outflows. While intermittent inflows occur in products such as BlackRock IBIT, overall institutional demand remains weak. This is the main capital driver behind the price decline.

Derivatives: Funding rates are positive but compressed. Long-term holders (LTH) are locking in high supply (~79%); whale positions are stable. This shows that selling pressure mainly comes from short-term/leverage traders rather than long-term holders.

On-chain indicators: MVRV Z-Score is at a low level (around ~0.3-0.4), near historical bear bottoms/the undervalued zone, indicating that the current price is relatively attractive versus “fair value.”

Fear & Greed: In the Extreme Fear zone (around ~8-20), a historical bottom signal that often precedes rebounds.

Puell Multiple and hash rate are stable; long-term holder behavior supports the formation of a bottom.

Overall: Capital flow is negative in the short term, but the trend of institutional exposure is still growing (advisers/hedge funds, etc.). Outflows are either near their end or approaching it—historical cycle bottoms are often accompanied by this.

🤯 Technical analysis:

Yesterday’s price action perfectly demonstrated what I predicted for everyone, not a hindsight call. Yesterday, I told everyone that as long as it doesn’t break above 64,700, it would still turn downward. After yesterday’s rebound, there was a big bearish candle, and it kept dropping until it hit around 62,000. What we have at this position right now is essentially a second test at the daily-chart level. The closer it gets to the 60,000 USDT threshold, the more opportunities there are.

Because today is Friday and the weekend is coming, the market will most likely stay in consolidation over the weekend. The purpose is to repair this order book level, and then it will start a daily-chart rebound. So, in summary, it will test again within the day; the chance for us is again when it reaches roughly the 60,000 to 61,000 area.

So for the next two days, wait patiently for the opportunity to be in place. After that, in the morning session, I will analyze it and help everyone enter.

Support: 61000-60000
Resistance: 64000-64600