Earlier, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed, and the crypto world was cheering: the Strait is opening, Bitcoin is about to hit 80k.

Stop.

I’m watching $BTC 64,080 on the market, down 1.73% in 24 hours. This isn’t good news coming to fruition; it’s the calm after all the good news has played out.

The memorandum was indeed signed, but it contains two countdowns: 30 days and 60 days. Iran demands the US lift the Strait blockade within 30 days, and there’s a 60-day window for nuclear talks. Trump has hinted that if talks fail, bombing will resume.

This isn’t a peace agreement; it’s a landmine with an insurance pin pulled.

The crypto community is now celebrating, possibly a version 2.0 of the April crash script. Back then, US-Iran negotiations broke down, and Bitcoin dropped from 73k directly below 70k.

Now, the same logical chain has been paused, but if the Strait isn’t opened in 30 days, that retracement will be even sharper.

Institutions have already fled. In May, Bitcoin was at 64,080.50; whales are reducing holdings, but the total stablecoin supply has expanded from 156 billion to 290 billion.

Money hasn’t left the crypto space; it’s just moved from Bitcoin/Ethereum to USDC/USDT.

This isn’t a bullish signal; it’s a standard retreat before battle. Institutions are hedging, retail investors are bottom-fishing.

Who is taking whose order? Don’t they have a clue?

I’m currently holding a light position, with plenty of cash. Not bearish, but in awe.

When the market prices in “peace signing,” it’s often emotion, not risk. The real risk lies in the uncertainty of whether the Strait will open in 30 days or bombs will drop in 60.

The electronic version of the US-Iran memorandum has been officially signed, and it takes effect immediately. Pakistan’s Prime Minister confirmed the Strait will open and the blockade will be lifted, but details are too vague, with two timelines running concurrently.

This news’s impact on the crypto world isn’t a definitive bullish signal but a shift from “Will there be a war?” to “Will there be a re-blockade in 30 days?”

Funds will continue to withdraw from high-risk assets into stablecoins, and the volatility range for Bitcoin and Ethereum will be extended. Contract traders should be cautious of sudden volatility spikes.

If the Strait isn’t opened in 30 days, and you’re fully long now, can you survive that weekend? #我的Gate交易时刻 #预测世界杯加拿大VS卡塔尔 #STRC跌破面值11%创上市新低