Bitcoin: Up or down south? $BTC $ETH

June 19 Core Event Breakdown

1. Geopolitical Event: On June 19, the US and Iran held negotiations in Switzerland, with the possibility of reaching an agreement. Falling oil prices are positive for the market; however, Israel's firm stance may cause sudden disturbances, increasing market volatility.

2. Federal Reserve's Latest Decision: In the first meeting under the new chair, the stance was hawkish, with interest rates maintained at 3.50%–3.75%. No rate cuts in the short term, with the possibility of rate hikes remaining. The dollar strengthened, putting pressure on risk assets, with positive and hawkish signals offsetting each other.

3. Liquidity Situation: Retail investor sentiment is pessimistic, while whale funds continue to enter the market. Major holders increased their Ethereum and Bitcoin holdings, limiting downside potential. Spot prices can be bought on dips below 55k, and futures can rebound and short.

4. Key Follow-ups:
① Progress of US-Iran negotiations on the day
② Latest inflation data and the September monetary policy meeting. If inflation declines, easing expectations will warm; if inflation remains high, rate hike expectations will continue to suppress the market.

5. Risk Reminder: Geopolitical emergencies may cause sudden spikes; futures positions must be strictly controlled.