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Yesterday was the first day of a new era for the markets.
Kevin Warsh led his first FED meeting as chairman. And although the headline is that they keep rates steady, the real story is elsewhere. I'll explain it quickly.
What has happened?
The FED has kept interest rates unchanged, in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Everyone agreed on this.
Up to this point, it was expected.
But then Warsh dropped the bomb: the FED is removing the "forward guidance," the habit of warning the market in advance about what it will do with rates.
With Powell, the market always more or less knew what was coming. With Warsh, that’s over. His words: giving hints ahead of time "is not the business we should be in."
Why does this change everything?
Maximum ambiguity = maximum flexibility.
Warsh wants free rein. And he hinted that he might even eliminate the "dot plot" (rate forecasts), the statement, and even press conferences.
Less information from the FED = more uncertainty = more short-term volatility. Volatility both positive and negative.
And not only that...
Warsh also said he will make decisions based on market prices. It’s a complete change: previously, the FED told the market what was coming, now the market sets the course for the FED. This gives much more weight to how prices behave day by day.
And now, what is the FED’s priority?
Warsh repeated 11 times his commitment to lowering inflation to 2%.
And it’s no coincidence: inflation is at its highest level in over three years. That tells you what his obsession is: crushing it, whatever the cost. He even said he’s here to "fix five years of failures" in inflation, a direct critique of the previous FED.
And it shows in the numbers: just three months ago, the FED projected rate cuts for this year. Now, it’s pointing in the exact opposite direction—a hike. The market expected a more dovish FED under Warsh, and the opposite is happening.
According to forecasts, no rate cuts are expected this year.
What does all this mean for the market?
In the short term, a less predictable FED obsessed with inflation is not the best scenario for risk assets. That’s why the market reacted downward, including Bitcoin.
But watch out, not everything is negative. If Warsh manages to tame inflation, he’s paving the way for a much healthier medium-to-long-term environment. And Bitcoin, historically, is one of the assets that benefits most when money starts flowing again.
Possible pain in the short term, possible reward later.
It’s time to adapt to the new rules of the game. I’ll keep you updated.