The latest core news in the crypto circle for June (divided into five major categories: macro Fed, fund ETFs, regulation, chip selling pressure, sector hotspots — all are recent key drivers of the market)

1. Macro Core: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has completely rewritten market logic (the root cause of this recent plunge)

1. The FOMC meeting on June 17th: interest rates remain unchanged, but 9 members bet on one rate hike before 2026, delaying the expectation of rate cuts until 2027, causing real U.S. bond yields to rise; BTC and ETH are interest-free risk assets, with discount rates rising, leading institutions to collectively reduce positions in growth-oriented cryptocurrencies

2. Market feedback: 24 hours after the meeting, 110k traders were liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation of $476 million; 70% of liquidations were long positions, BTC briefly dropped below $63,700, and the Fear & Greed Index fell to 15 (extreme fear zone); the market shifted from betting on rate cuts to a defensive stance against rate hikes

3. Capital flow diversion: The US stock AI rally continues to siphon funds, with a large amount of existing crypto funds transferring to US tech stocks, causing liquidity in the total crypto market cap to continue shrinking

2. Institutional Funds (ETFs are the bull/bear indicator)

1. US BTC spot ETF: net outflows have continued over the past two weeks, with a net outflow of $82.2 million on June 17; Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see large redemptions, MicroStrategy previously showed small reductions, indicating the largest bullish phase buyers are temporarily leaving

2. ETH spot ETF: funds are even weaker, with daily inflows and outflows mostly in the hundreds of thousands, no institutional active accumulation trend; Ethereum’s subsequent upgrades after Cancun are already priced in, with no new narratives in the short term

3. Stablecoins: USDT’s total market cap slightly shrank, off-exchange fiat onramps are sluggish, and incremental funds are almost nonexistent

3. Latest Global Regulatory Developments

USA (Deciding on medium- and long-term trends)

The CLARITY crypto bill is stuck in the Senate for a full vote; over 200 top exchanges jointly urge for a vote; once passed, BTC/ETH will be classified as commodities under CFTC regulation, ending SEC’s disorderly lawsuits; but there is significant disagreement among lawmakers, with the likelihood of passing this year decreasing, pushing the window to 2027, and regulatory uncertainty suppressing valuations

Worldwide

• EU’s MiCA law fully takes effect on July 1, raising compliance thresholds for European exchanges, accelerating the clearing out of small tokens

• Hong Kong’s stablecoin compliance rules are implemented, limited to licensed institutions issuing stablecoins, tightening retail trading channels

• China continues strict crackdowns on domestic virtual currency exchanges, mining, and token activities, aiming to prevent crypto-related money laundering and illegal financial activities

4. Potential Selling Pressure Mines (Recent potential dump risks)

Mt. Gox liquidation: 34.5k BTC remaining (market value $2.4 billion), with two large on-chain transfers in June; market worries about phased payouts causing spot selling pressure, with the deadline at the end of October; this negative factor will hang over the market long-term

5. Sector Hotspot Differentiation

1. The AI token sector is the only one resisting decline: Worldcoin, small AI computing power tokens are being supported by funds, linked to US stock AI logic, decoupled from the overall market trend

2. Meme coins retreat across the board: Penguin coin PENGU, FARTCOIN continue to decline, speculators flee, altcoins’ liquidity dries up, most altcoins underperform BTC

3. Solana ecosystem: on-chain active addresses decline, fewer “dirt dog” projects, SOL fluctuates with the market, lacking independent positive drivers

Summary for everyone:

Current market liquidity tightening > positive factors, with two major turning signals: ① US bond yields decline, rate cut expectations reprice ② ETFs return to large continuous net inflows; other minor positives are unlikely to reverse the trend.