$64,100 Bitcoin—can you handle it?

First, take a look at the market: painful, but not a breakdown.

It’s down slightly 0.7% over 24 hours, but the weekly chart is still up 4%. From 82k in April–May down to the current 64k, it’s fallen 22%. The 60k–68k range has been choppy for almost two months—unable to break higher or lower. Trading volume is $2.5 billion, still at active levels.

First thing: the Fed is talking about rate hikes, but the market may have already “priced in the drop”

Kevin Warsh hosts the FOMC for the first time; interest rates are unchanged (in line with expectations), but the dot plot is the real flashpoint—multiple officials expect at least one rate hike this year. The statement is brief and hawkish, and the market immediately votes with its feet: BTC gets smashed from above 66k back to 64k.

Markets are never afraid of bad news—what they fear is the “not-expected.”

And this “not-expected” has been priced in for two months.

Second thing: ETFs ran, but there’s still $50 billion+ inside

June ETF net outflows set a historical record—up to $3.4 billion in a single week, for total outflows of over $4.4 billion. Retail investors see this number and their legs go weak.

2024–2025 cumulative ETF net inflows exceed $50 billion

After $4.4 billion ran out, over 90% is still inside

Core products like BlackRock’s IBIT have redemption rates far below the industry average

Short-term capital leaving is actually a good thing—it flushes out the undecided, and the bottom becomes more solid.

Third thing: hash rate is down 13%, but miners haven’t surrendered

Compute power has fallen 13% from its November 2025 peak—this is the deepest pullback in the industrial mining era. Miners are indeed under pressure, and some older mining rigs may be shut down.

But you need to know:

When FTX collapsed in 2022, compute power dropped 25%.

This time it’s only down 13%, and it has already started to stabilize.

Miners haven’t surrendered at a large scale, which suggests:

Large mining farms with good control of electricity costs are still profitable

The true “miners surrender bottom” hasn’t arrived yet, but it’s coming soon

Bull vs. bear—you decide for yourself

One side is:

The weekly chart is still up 4%, and rebound momentum exists

Cumulative ETF inflows still exceed $50 billion—institutional adoption is irreversible

MicroStrategy keeps adding, voting with real money

The strong support at 60k–61k has been tested multiple times and held

The other side is:

A hawkish Fed, with possible rate hikes this year

ETF outflows of $4.4 billion in the past month—near-term selling pressure still there

Hash rate down 13%—miners under pressure

The technical structure of a “downward channel + lower highs” hasn’t been broken

Key level is 64,100—only 4,100 away from the life-or-death line at 60,000

Support below: 60,000–61,000 (iron-bottom defense line) → 58,000–56,000 (the golden pit)

Resistance above: 67,000–68,000 (bull-bear life-or-death line) → 70,000–72,000 (reversal confirmation)

Short-term traders:

Accumulate in batches around 61k–62k, stop-loss at 59,800.

Try a light short around 67.5k–68k, take profit at 65k, stop-loss at 69k.

Keep leverage within 3x—don’t get greedy. This range is tailor-made to crush those chasing rallies and panic-selling.

Mid-term players:

DCA in batches between 60k–65k, build the position in 3–5 batches, total position size capped at 30–50%.

Add-on signal: ETF cumulative net inflows turn positive + volume breaks above 68k.

Target: 85k–100k (waiting for the Fed to pivot or for ETFs to return to net inflows).

Risk management:

Risk per trade no more than 1–2% of total funds

Keep 30–50% in cash and wait for clear signals

Watch ETF daily flows, and the July FOMC

If it breaks below 58k and macro conditions deteriorate, reduce positions and stay on the sidelines

Bitcoin is still the same Bitcoin—what changes is only your level of fear.

A 64k BTC is 22% cheaper than at 82k.

Miners are still mining, institutions are still buying, and MicroStrategy is still accumulating.

Every bout of panic is a golden pit—but only a few dare to reach out. #我的Gate交易时刻 #沃什首秀美联储利率不变 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 $BTC $ETH $SOL