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June 18 Thursday Midday Market Analysis
The Federal Reserve decision has landed: it looks like there will be no rate hike on the surface, but in reality it’s an even more hawkish stance, causing BTC to drop by 2 points straight away.
Interest rates do indeed remain in line with market expectations—holding steady at 3.75% with no change—but the dot plot immediately poured cold water on the market.
Of the 18 officials, half expect that another rate hike will still be coming in 2026. By year-end, the median interest rate will be raised to 3.8%, and inflation expectations will also be adjusted upward to 3.3%, effectively shattering expectations of rate cuts.
After the news broke, BTC fell immediately by 2%, hitting a low of 64,300.
Institutions’ range view: before the Federal Reserve releases signals of easing, BTC will most likely keep oscillating between 60,000 and 67,000.
With the overall macro environment tightening, it’s difficult for the market in the short term to break out into a one-way big rally. For operations, stick to range trading as much as possible—sell high and buy low—and don’t blindly hold long positions with heavy, long-term leverage.
BTC trading suggestion: short around 64,500; take profit at 63,500-62,800; stop loss at 65,000.
ETH trading suggestion: short around 1,750; take profit at 1,720-1,680; stop loss at 1,780.