AMD surges over 130% this year: MI450 volume expansion imminent, does the AI chip correction change the upward logic?

On June 17, 2026, AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) closed at $512.48, up 1.02% for the day. This price level is up more than twofold compared with the beginning of 2026. Over a longer cycle, AMD’s gain over the past three months was 133.83%, and its year-to-date gain was 117.77%. The sharp upward move in the stock price reflects a high level of market consensus that AMD is undergoing a structural revaluation in the AI compute era—but such a high rise also means a high valuation and high volatility. As of June 18, AMD’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was approximately 166.83 times, and its market capitalization was about $835.65 billion. However, valuation readings vary significantly depending on the metric: the forward P/E based on 2026 earnings forecasts is about 84.4 times; while data from early June showed AMD’s trailing P/E at about 155.99 times and forward P/E at about 68.03 times. The huge gap between TTM and forward P/E essentially reflects the market pricing in AMD’s explosive earnings growth over the next two years—not a valuation of its current earnings power.

Divergent Valuation Readings for a High Valuation: The Logic Behind 166x TTM vs. 84x Forward P/E

The divergence in P/E multiples is not unusual; it is a typical feature of high-growth tech stocks. In AMD’s first fiscal quarter of 2026 (ended March 28, 2026), revenue reached $10.25 billion, up 45% year over year; Non-GAAP net profit was $2.265 billion, corresponding to earnings per share (EPS) of $1.37. The company’s second-quarter revenue guidance was $10.8 billion to $11.5 billion, with the midpoint implying a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 9%. After a mid-June conference call, Wolfe Research pointed out that, driven by strong incremental CPU business and the potential of MI450 new customers at the gigawatt level, “there is significant room for upward revision to the market’s consensus expectations for 2026 and 2027.” J.P. Morgan International has raised its AMD revenue forecasts for 2026/2027 to $49.51 billion/$73.60 billion, and raised Non-GAAP EPS to $7.13/$11.99.

Using the $512.48 share price and the $7.13 2026 EPS forecast, the forward P/E is about 71.9x—slightly below the 84.4x consensus expectation, but still at a high level. Wolfe Research further outlines a more aggressive earnings path: under assumptions that OpenAI and Meta each contribute 1 gigawatt of compute demand, on top of AI agent CPU demand, AMD’s EPS could reach $25 to $30 per share—implying that in a bull-market scenario the P/E would be “less than 20x.” The key variable in this scenario is the shipping pace of MI450 and the progress of customer expansion.

MI450 Shipping Cycle: Start in Q3, Volume Ramp in Q4—Meta and OpenAI Anchor Demand

MI450 is AMD’s core product in the AI accelerator space, competing with NVIDIA. According to disclosures by AMD management during the first-quarter 2026 earnings call, MI450 has already begun sampling to key customers, and the Helios AI rack system designed to go with it is planned to gradually increase shipments in the second half of 2026. A more precise timeline shows that MI450 Helios racks are expected to begin shipping in Q3 and contribute substantial revenue in Q4. Wolfe Research further detailed that MI450 shipments will kick off in the latter half of Q3, with acceleration in Q4. AMD expects “a quite significant jump” in Q4 revenue and to continue the growth momentum into the first quarter of 2027.

Customer-side information further strengthens the certainty of MI450 demand. OpenAI and Meta are important anchor customers, and their demand is higher than the company’s initial plans. AMD has reached a multi-year supply agreement with Meta for 6GW of AI data center GPUs; the first tranche of 1GW deliveries will begin in the second half of 2026 and continue into 2027. Citigroup estimates that each gigawatt of supply corresponds to about $15 billion in revenue for AMD; even Meta alone could potentially contribute nearly $90 billion in potential revenue. Beyond these two customers, AMD is still pursuing more megawatt-scale customers.

On the supply side, AMD has prepared capacity in advance for 2026, 2027, and even 2028. The company said it has secured enough wafer supply to support a substantial increase in server business over the next two years. Supply-chain partner AT&S, based on its AMD expansion agreement, has raised its revenue growth forecast for fiscal years 2026/2027 from 30%-35% to 45%-55%—and this upstream signal indirectly confirms AMD’s confidence in MI450 and related product shipments.

Institutional Ratings and Target Prices: From “CPU Stock” to a “Second Growth Engine” for GPUs

Since June 2026, multiple Wall Street institutions have repeatedly raised their AMD target prices. On June 15, Citigroup upgraded AMD’s rating from “Neutral” to “Buy,” and sharply raised its target price from $460 to $575. Citigroup analysts’ core logic is that the market has misjudged AMD’s valuation: most investors still view AMD as a CPU concept stock, and the current share price only implies about a 60% probability that AMD will achieve more than $50 billion in GPU revenue in 2028—seriously underestimating AMD’s potential in the GPU market. Citigroup expects AMD’s AI business to reach $33 billion in 2027 (up 137% year over year), and $50.8 billion in 2028.

Bernstein raised its target price for AMD from $525 to $600 on June 17, maintaining a “outperform the market” rating. Bernstein expects AMD’s fiscal 2027 EPS to be about $14.60. On June 11, Bank of America raised its target price from $500 to $560 and maintained a “Buy” rating. J.P. Morgan International raised its target price to $468, corresponding to a 39x price-to-earnings multiple for 2027. Overall, analysts’ consensus rating for AMD is “strong buy,” with the highest target price reaching $665.

However, not all institutions are optimistic. On June 17, the Russian financial institution Finam gave AMD a “Sell” rating with a target price of $334.4, believing there is 34% downside room from the current share price. This divergence itself reflects AMD’s current valuation level: the gap between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios exceeds $300 per share, fundamentally representing different pricing of whether MI450 can ramp as scheduled and whether the competitive landscape in the AI chip market can loosen.

Assessing the Nature of the Pullback: Is a -17% Weekly Drop an Industry-Wide Systemic Shock or an AMD-Specific Logic Break?

Despite generally positive fundamental signals, AMD’s share price experienced severe volatility in early June. The trigger was Broadcom’s release of its FY2026 second-quarter earnings report after market close on June 3—total revenue of $22.2 billion, up 48% year over year; AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8 billion, up 143%. However, Broadcom’s guidance for AI semiconductor revenue in the third quarter was about $16 billion, below the market’s most optimistic expectation of around $17.2 billion. This combination of “better-than-expected earnings + below-expected guidance” triggered market concerns about whether the AI infrastructure capital expenditure cycle may be peaking.

On June 4, Broadcom’s stock plunged 12.6% in a single day to $15, wiping out about $320 billion in market value. The sell-off then spread across the entire semiconductor sector. On June 5, AMD fell 10.86% in a single day, dropping to $466. After that, the downtrend continued for several days—on June 11, AMD fell another 4.86% to $452.40. From the peak before Broadcom’s earnings release on June 4 (around $546), AMD’s maximum drawdown over about a week approached 17%. In the same period, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 10% on June 5, logging one of the largest single-day declines since the pandemic. The semiconductor sector’s market value evaporated by roughly $1.3 trillion in one day.

To determine the nature of this pullback, it needs to be examined from two levels. The first is the industry-level systemic shock: Broadcom’s guidance missed expectations, leading the market to reassess the growth rate of AI chip demand across the sector. But it’s worth noting that Broadcom’s main focus is customized ASIC chips (XPU customized for cloud providers), while AMD’s main focus is general-purpose GPUs—there are differences between the two in business models and customer structure. Broadcom’s guidance more reflects the procurement cadence of specific customers’ custom chips, rather than a broad slowdown in overall general AI compute demand. The second layer is the AMD-specific logic check: during the pullback, AMD did not release any negative news or product delay announcements. The MI450 shipping timetable, Meta’s 6GW order, and OpenAI’s collaboration progress all remained unchanged. After the pullback, Wolfe Research explicitly stated that “there is significant room for upward revision to the market’s consensus expectations for 2026 and 2027.”

From the competitive landscape perspective, NVIDIA still leads the discrete graphics card market with a 90% market share, while AMD ranks second with 8%. But in the data center AI chip market, AMD is narrowing the gap thanks to its MI series accelerators—data center revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was $5.8 billion, up 57% year over year. UBS noted that AMD’s Helios platform motherboards are expected to ship in Q4 2026, but full rack deployment may be delayed until the end of 2026—uncertainty in this timeline is a risk point to watch in the medium term.

Gate Launches Stock Trading: Trade US Stocks Such as AMD Directly Using USDT

Against the backdrop of accelerating integration between traditional stocks and crypto assets, Gate officially launched real US stock trading services on June 1, 2026. Users can directly use USDT to trade stocks and ETFs of major US securities markets such as Nasdaq within the Gate platform. On June 11, Gate further launched Hong Kong stock trading services. Users can upgrade the App to version v8.23.5 or above to directly trade more than 1,500 stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. By mid-June, Gate’s stock trading had covered more than 11,500 US and Hong Kong stock listings.

For investors who focus on semiconductor stocks such as AMD, Gate’s stock trading offers several differentiated advantages. First, multi-asset management under a unified account system: US stocks and crypto assets operate under the same account system, enabling users to manage funds, monitor positions, and allocate capital across multiple markets from a single interface. Second, fractional trading—participate with as little as $1 to invest in high-priced stocks such as Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft. Third, fee advantages—VIP users’ fees are as low as 0.023%.

For investors looking for trading opportunities amid volatility in the semiconductor sector, Gate’s unified account system allows users to flexibly switch between crypto assets and US stocks—so they can use USDT to set up discounted semiconductor stock positions during market panic, or carry out cross-asset allocation between the crypto market and the stock market. The specific steps are: log in to your Gate account, select the “Stock Trading” module, choose the US or Hong Kong market, search for ticker codes such as AMD, and place orders using your USDT balance. iOS users need to update the App to version 8.21.5 or above, and Android users only need to update to the latest version to experience it.

Conclusion

AMD sits at a classic crossroads where “high valuation, high growth, and high volatility” intersect. Over 130% gains year-to-date, a forward P/E of 84x, and the MI450 shipping cycle about to arrive together form a tense investment picture. The -17% weekly pullback in early June triggered by Broadcom’s earnings report is more of a systemic re-rating of the entire AI chip sector’s valuation than a breakdown of AMD’s individual stock logic. MI450’s shipping progress, the orders from Meta and OpenAI landing, and whether 2027 EPS can reach the market’s expectations of $14-$15—these are the core variables that will determine AMD’s medium-term trajectory. For investors, Gate’s launch of real US stock trading provides a convenient channel to flexibly allocate semiconductor stocks such as AMD under a unified account system.