Just now! It’s counting down to the Fed’s new King Wosh’s debut— is the last “bomb” still a smoke bomb? Your $BTC and $ETH are about to change tonight.

Tonight the world holds its breath. Waller—Trump’s chosen Fed chair—hosts his first policy meeting since taking office, and the results are about to be revealed. No change in interest rates, the market has already anticipated that. But the truly critical details are hidden in three places: the statement wording, the dot plot, and that man’s press conference.

First, the statement. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley all predict the Fed will remove the previously maintained “dovish tilt” wording that has been in place for months. In plain language: they’ve been hinting “a rate cut is highly likely next time,” but now they’re saying “the chances of rate hikes and cuts are equal.” This signal is as firm as Tesla brake pads.

Inflation forecasts are set for a major revision. Goldman Sachs expects core PCE to soar from 2.7% to 3.3% by 2026. On the dot plot, where they previously indicated one rate cut within the year, it might now be “holding steady,” or even several hawkish officials could directly signal rate hikes. Four to five points cluster around 3.875%, meaning a few have already incorporated rate hikes into their baseline projections.

But there’s an external buffer: progress on the Iran deal, Brent crude oil falling back from recent highs to around $82, easing inflation pressures temporarily. However, core inflation remains sticky, and the labor market has been strong for three consecutive months—May’s non-farm payrolls averaged 188k jobs, and the unemployment rate will likely hover at 4.4%.

The focus isn’t just on interest rates but on Waller’s press conference. Bank of America made it clear: if he characterizes recent inflation as a “one-off supply shock” and emphasizes AI-driven disinflation, long-term rates could plummet; if he explicitly endorses a rate hike path, the 2-year SOFR could jump 15 basis points, and the dollar could surge. Goldman Sachs sees this as a “divergent outcome path under the same rate decision,” with implications for rates, forex, stocks, and gold, each setting their own stage.

Waller is a contradictory figure. He opposes forward guidance, advocates shrinking the balance sheet, and prefers the Dallas Fed’s average inflation target (currently 2.35%) as a reference. He appointed conservative advisors. But overall, he’s dovish—Trump appointed him to cut rates. His debut won’t be rash, but he also won’t give easy assurances. The most likely scenario is a “neutral stance, ready to respond in either direction”—not triggering a bomb, but a single wrong word could ignite a fuse.

For your holdings of $BTC and $ETH, this is more important than any on-chain data. If Waller signals dovishness, the dollar weakens, risk assets rebound, and we can breathe easier; if he’s hawkish, the dollar will absorb liquidity, and the crypto market might take a hit first. Goldman Sachs data shows the gold market is already net short, with CTAs and ETFs shorting gold. Once the Fed turns neutral or dovish, short covering in gold could trigger a rebound—cryptos often follow gold’s sentiment.

The Iran deal is the biggest variable. If the deal is smoothly signed on Friday, oil prices will continue to fall, and Waller can use “temporary supply shocks” as a shield to stay on hold. But if something goes wrong with the deal, rate hike expectations will reignite immediately. Goldman’s baseline forecast: rates stay unchanged throughout 2026, with two rate cuts delayed until June and December 2027. Probabilistically, this is even more dovish than market pricing, because Goldman doesn’t believe Waller will hike rates at all.

What do I suggest? Don’t sleep tonight. After the statement and dot plot are released, the market will likely fluctuate wildly once; at 2:30 a.m., the press conference begins, and every word Waller says is a knife. Don’t bet on the direction—hold your positions or set tight stop-losses. Remember: the safest outcome for Waller’s debut is “no bombs”—but a wrong phrase could blow up your holdings at any moment. #Walrus $WAL #Sui #DePIN @Walrus

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