Trump publicly supports cryptocurrencies.

If this had happened two years ago, who would believe it?

Someone who once publicly called Bitcoin a "scam" now directly endorses the crypto industry for votes, promising to relax regulations. Political winds shift faster than a needle, and crypto has become a key issue for swing state voters, even Elon Musk liked the post below.

My first reaction was that the market would definitely celebrate wildly.

But after calming down, I realized Trump's support has never been free; he has big backers and policy deals behind him. The crypto industry wants to use legalization as a bargaining chip, but they have to cater to this political beast’s appetite.

Short-term sentiment is at its peak, but will long-term rules be tied to the rollercoaster of "who gets elected, who loosens regulations"?

Earlier, I thought that with this kind of news, $BTC would surge, but on-chain, I didn't see large inflows; instead, funding rates are tightening a bit. Some in the market are betting on political dividends, but others are waiting for the real implementation day.

I don't chase these emotional moves.

Political cards are always a double-edged sword. Loosening regulations is good, but who benefits, and how much they loosen, is the real question.

Now, if many longs rush in, and the election turns around, the liquidation zone could bury people until tomorrow.

Don't get caught up in the hype.

This round, I’ll just review and reflect, not pretend to be a teacher.

Look at the on-chain prediction market, which just went through a round of legal crackdown—A Michigan judge ruled that sports prediction markets are not under CFTC jurisdiction; Polymarket’s injunction was dismissed; on the same day, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket;

CME Chairman Duffy directly announced plans to sue the CFTC, opposing approval of Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual contracts. These three events happened within two days, effectively giving prediction markets and perpetual contracts a triple whammy.

For crypto funds, this regulatory game will make more institutional investors temporarily cautious, liquidity will be tight in the short term, and altcoins and contract liquidation zones will become more crowded.

Do you think Trump really takes office, crypto will usher in a true spring, or is it just another political show?
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