Last night, the Federal Reserve's move completely confused the market.

At 2 a.m., new Chair Powell held his first meeting. Interest rates remained unchanged, which everyone expected. But the bombs he dropped afterward were more shocking than the last.
First, a cold fact: unanimous approval.
12-0, no one opposed. To know, at the last meeting, three regional presidents had pounded the table in disagreement; this time, everyone stayed silent. It's not that everyone has become obedient; Powell simply changed the statement so that no one could find fault—cut the 341 words down to 130, removing all the fluff like "considering further adjustments."
Next, a harsh reality: the dot plot is gone.
Powell is capable of doing that. He didn't release his own interest rate forecasts, becoming the first chairman in 14 years to do so. The reason is—you're all fixated on the dot plot guessing game, but the Fed's own forecasts look like a joke, so why bother guessing?
Most critically, the numbers.
Nine officials expect at least one rate hike this year, with the median rate rising to 3.8%. Inflation expectations jumped from 2.7% to 3.6%. The market immediately exploded—probability of a rate hike in October shot straight to 100%.
How did the market react?
U.S. stocks plunged at the close, all three major indices in the red. Gold fell below 4,300. The two-year Treasury yield soared. Simply put: everything is preparing for a rate hike.
Powell's three key actions are worth noting:
First, he abolished the dot plot; second, he explicitly said there would be no more hints about the "future interest rate path"; third, he established five working groups to prepare for major reforms at the Fed. This isn't just a style change—it's a complete overhaul of the framework.
In a nutshell,
The rate cut chapter is over; going forward, it's not about "whether" to hike, but "how many" times.
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