$BTC | Monthly

As I mentioned a few months back, I was eyeing early July as a potential window for a macro bottom on BTC. The reasoning behind this was purely based on how the Monthly structure was developing.

Back in March, I was expecting a pullback into the Monthly FVG around 79k before continuation towards the downside, with June/July being the months where we could potentially form a macro bottom.

We have seen how accurately that scenario has played out, and now I'm watching a few possible outcomes that could develop near the bottom. The main thing I'm looking for right now is a Monthly close below 59.9k.

That would be the first trigger for a potential early bottom. Ideally, we should see a wick into the 54.5k region, followed by a reclaim of 57.8k before the end of the month. July is where we need to start paying close attention to how the price action develops.

If we manage to respect the June Low throughout July, it would be a strong confirmation that a potential bottom is forming. However, if July creates a new low, then there is a high chance we see a deeper correction towards the 41k-37k region by October.

For now, everything boils down to how this Monthly candle closes and what kind of structure we see developing at the start of the next month.