The US-Iran agreement is set to be signed in Switzerland tomorrow, while Israel is launching a new round of airstrikes against Lebanon at the same time. Trump has also stated that a restart of Middle East conflicts remains possible.

Geopolitical risks have not eased with the agreement talks but have instead intensified.
More notably, on the supply side, under the framework of the agreement, market expectations are for Iranian oil prices to decline, but Iran's fleet has already been expanding its export capacity in preparation. The pace of supply release is controlled by Iran's strategic will and will not be linear.
The narrative that oil prices must fall and inflation must slow down is much more fragile than market pricing suggests.
If oil prices rebound due to geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations will rise again, further compressing the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates. This would put dual pressure on US stocks—high interest rates plus rising risk premiums.
Cryptocurrencies are temporarily weakening along with risk appetite, with $BTC support at $64,500 facing tests. If the US-Iran agreement is signed as scheduled tomorrow and the situation does not escalate further, it will be a short-term window for risk sentiment recovery.
The moment of signing in Switzerland tomorrow will be the true point of direction clearing.
DYOR, not investment advice.