#沃什首秀美联储利率不变

Complete daily outlook on Bitcoin as of June 18, 2026 (Information for reference only, not investment advice)

1. Current Market Situation

As of midday June 18, BTC is trading around $64,000, down 2.72% in 24 hours, with a low of $63,970 in the early morning.

1. Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index is only 15, entering extreme fear territory, with strong selling pressure and retail panic selling evident;
2. Capital Flow: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has been continuously net outflowing for several days, institutional inflows are retreating, lacking buying support;
3. Technical Pattern: Daily chart maintains a bearish structure, price remains under pressure from the 20/50-day moving averages, rebound strength is very weak, indicating a weak downward trend;
4. Derivatives: Previously, long leverage positions were heavily liquidated, but short positions have not been fully realized, and downward momentum has not been completely released.

2. Today's Core Driver: FOMC Meeting Tonight

The Federal Reserve's decision tonight is the only key variable determining short-term price movements, with three scenarios:

1. Hawkish (highest market expectation)
Inflation expectations rise, no rate cut guidance for the year, dot plot maintains high interest rates: U.S. bond yields surge, risk assets decline collectively, BTC likely dips again to test $63,000 and the psychological $60k level.
2. Neutral/Mild
Maintain current rate guidance, no signals of rate hikes: slight short-term rebound, but heavy resistance above, only recovering to the $66,000–$68,000 range, unable to change the medium-term weakness.
3. Dovish beyond expectations
Signal rate cuts: quick short-term rebound pushing toward $69,000–$70,000 resistance, but sustainability of the rebound is doubtful amid ongoing ETF outflows.

3. Key Support/Resistance Zones

Short-term Support (from near to far)

1. $63,800–$64,000: Intraday first support, early morning low;
2. $61,000–$62,000: 200-week moving average long-term support, core defense level in this correction;
3. $59,000–$60,000: Strong psychological level, a break below may trigger a new round of panic selling.

Short-term Resistance (rebound hurdles)

1. $66,000: Short-term moving average resistance, first rebound barrier;
2. $68,000–$68,500: Bottom of previous consolidation range, turning into strong resistance;
3. $70,000: The dividing line between bulls and bears, only a firm hold can reverse the short-term downtrend.

4. Bull-Bear Logic Breakdown

Bearish Core Logic (current dominant trend)

1. Macro liquidity tightening: U.S. employment and inflation data exceed expectations, rate cut expectations fade, high interest rate environment unfavorable for high-volatility assets like crypto;
2. Continuous capital outflow: Spot ETF redemption continues, institutional funds retreat, no new inflows to absorb selling pressure;
3. Capital diversion: Global funds flow into AI and U.S. tech stocks, crypto market inflows are being continuously diverted;
4. On-chain selling pressure: Long-term holders realize losses, panic selling continues to suppress prices.

Bullish Game Theory (suitable for long-term left-side positioning)

1. Extreme fear sentiment: Fear index drops to low levels, historically, extreme fear often near cycle bottoms;
2. Long-term support at 200-week moving average: Major bottoms in past three bear markets occurred near this line;
3. Halving cycle long-term logic unchanged: Four-year halving reduces supply and demand, long-term value increases after sharp declines;
4. On-chain accumulation at lows: Long-term holders are strongly willing to hold, bottom support gradually exhausts selling pressure.

5. Practical Trading Reminders (Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency volatility is high, leverage risks are extreme)

1. Short-term traders: Reduce leverage before tonight’s FOMC, hold light positions, avoid betting on direction prematurely; follow the trend after the decision, strictly set stop-loss;
2. Spot traders: Do not buy the dip before breaking above $66,000; only aim for small rebounds supported by the $61,000–$62,000 moving averages;
3. Long-term investors: Do not fully deploy all at once, use dollar-cost averaging, gradually accumulate below $60,000, reserve funds for extreme drops below $59,000;
4. Risk alert: The current trend is clearly bearish, contrarian heavy buying and high leverage long positions are prone to large losses.

6. Medium to Long-Term Summary

Short-term (1-7 days): Fed policy dominates, causing oscillating downward trend, difficult for the weak pattern to reverse quickly;
Medium-term (1-3 months): Need ETF inflows and rate cut expectations to be simultaneously fulfilled to trigger a trend reversal;
Long-term (halving cycle perspective): After significant correction, valuation enters low zone, suitable for phased long-term deployment, but short-term volatility risk remains high.