ZHIPU surpasses 1,900 Hong Kong dollars, nearly doubling from the June low: Where is ZHIPU's ceiling?

ZHIPU's current rally is not an isolated price movement but the result of multiple logical factors resonating in the short term. As of June 18, 2026, based on Gate market data, ZHIPU is temporarily reported at HKD 1,905, up 15% intraday, nearly doubling from the mid-June low, and just one step away from its all-time high.

From the timeline perspective, mid-June marks a critical watershed for this round of market. On June 11, Gate officially launched Hong Kong stock trading services, supporting over 1,000 Hong Kong stocks, with ZHIPU becoming one of the platform's highly watched targets. On June 13, Zhipu announced full release of its flagship model GLM-5.2, offering a 1 million token context window, with model weights open-sourced under the MIT license. On June 15, JPMorgan raised Zhipu’s target price to HKD 1,400 (about USD 180), maintaining an "overweight" rating, with the stock soaring up to 48% that day. These events, concentrated within less than a week, form the core driving force behind this rally.

How Model Capability Upgrades Affect Market Pricing

The full release of GLM-5.2 is a significant milestone for Zhipu’s product side. The model maintains domestic leadership in long-range programming and agent tasks, with early developer feedback indicating its coding ability is close to Claude Opus. From a market pricing logic perspective, the leap in model capability directly impacts two dimensions: first, expectations for growth in API call volume; second, customers’ willingness to pay.

Previously, Zhipu demonstrated pricing power—API prices increased by 83%, yet usage grew by 400%. The full release of GLM-5.2 further reinforces this logic: stronger model capabilities mean higher customer stickiness and a deeper moat. The market’s valuation premium on ZHIPU essentially prices in the assumption that its “model capability remains ahead.”

Is the Valuation Already Detached from Fundamentals?

This is the most core point of contention in this rally. According to Zhipu’s 2025 performance report, full-year revenue reached RMB 724 million, a 131.9% YoY increase, ranking first among domestic independent large model vendors. But high growth comes with high losses—net loss in 2025 was RMB 4.72B, up 59.5% YoY, with R&D expenses of RMB 3.18 billion, about four times the same period’s revenue.

At current prices, ZHIPU’s price-to-sales ratio (PS) is already extremely high. Some analysts point out its PS is 773 times, making it one of the most expensive AI stocks globally. Horizontally comparing, competitor MiniMax’s revenue is RMB 570 million but its market cap is less than one-tenth of Zhipu’s. This valuation divergence reflects the market’s different pricing of their business models and growth paths, but also implies ZHIPU’s valuation contains very high expectations—any underperformance could trigger a valuation reset.

Capital Structure and Market Participant Behavior Logic

On June 8, Zhipu was officially included in the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect, with northbound funds net buying RMB 920 million in a single day. Inclusion in Stock Connect means mainland funds can participate more conveniently, directly expanding buying power. From a behavioral perspective, index inclusion often triggers passive fund allocation needs, while active funds may preemptively position for “anticipation of inclusion.”

Additionally, Zhipu is pushing for a secondary listing on the STAR Market, planning to raise RMB 15 billion. If successful, it would become the first “A+H” large model enterprise. The high valuation premium for AI tracks in A-shares could further boost market sentiment. However, it’s worth noting that speculation on secondary listings often carries the risk of “buying the rumor, selling the fact”—once the good news materializes, profit-taking may follow.

Underlying Logic of Bull and Bear Divergence

Currently, market divergence over ZHIPU is very pronounced. The bullish case revolves around three pillars: the model’s position in the global top tier (GLM-5.1 Coding surpassing GPT-5.4), projected revenue growth of 316% to RMB 3 billion by 2026, and dual capital catalysts from Hong Kong Stock Connect and A-shares listing.

The bearish view focuses on valuation bubbles and competitive landscape. On June 17, Hedgeye analyst issued ZHIPU’s first sell recommendation, suggesting a reasonable short-term target of HKD 407. The analyst pointed out the company’s lack of pricing power, especially after the release of DeepSeek V4, which triggered an AI price war. Additionally, Ray Dalio has publicly highlighted the risks of AI bubbles. Looking at past performance after reaching all-time highs, the stock retraced 35%, and after positive news, it fell 13%, confirming the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” market behavior pattern.

Technical Significance of the Previous High and Market Psychology

ZHIPU’s 52-week high was HKD 1,993, touched intraday on May 29. The current price of HKD 1,905 (based on Gate data) is just one step away from this high. From a technical analysis perspective, historical highs often serve as important psychological resistance levels—areas where profit-taking concentrates and where new investors gauge whether to chase the rally.

However, technical significance must be interpreted in conjunction with fundamentals. The May high coincided with the release of GLM-5.1 and initial market enthusiasm for the IPO, while the current level is supported by multiple catalysts: GLM-5.2 release, inclusion in Hong Kong Stock Connect, and JPMorgan’s target price upgrade. The density and quality of catalysts are higher than before, providing more fundamental support for breaking through the previous high. Yet, the closer to the previous high, the more intense the battle between bulls and bears—whether a breakout can be confirmed depends on whether new buying can absorb the trapped positions at the previous high.

Industry Landscape and ZHIPU’s Evolving Position

Zhipu’s market positioning is shifting from “China’s largest large model stock” to “a key participant in global AI competition.” JPMorgan’s upgrade of Zhipu’s target price also downgraded its competitor MiniMax to neutral. This divergence reflects Wall Street’s differing judgments on their strategic paths: Zhipu focuses on large language models, while MiniMax emphasizes broader products including video generation and consumer applications.

From a global competition perspective, US restrictions on Chinese AI technology have created market space for Chinese AI companies. China has prioritized technological self-reliance in its new five-year plan (2026–2030). As a company with a background in Tsinghua University’s technology transfer, Zhipu benefits from this policy dividend. However, competitors like DeepSeek launching price wars are compressing overall industry profit margins.

Logical Deduction of Risk Factors

ZHIPU’s high valuation embeds at least three layers of risk. First, performance realization risk—if the RMB 3.16 billion revenue growth in 2026 cannot be achieved, valuation will face systemic correction. Second, worsening competitive landscape risk—the AI price war could erode Zhipu’s pricing power and gross margins. Third, market sentiment reversal risk—the current valuation already reflects many positive expectations, and macroeconomic or policy changes could cause high-beta AI sector stocks to fluctuate sharply.

From a financial structure perspective, Zhipu’s gross margin declined from 56.3% in 2024 to 41% in 2025. Earning RMB 1 requires burning RMB 6.5 in input costs, indicating the company still relies heavily on external financing to sustain operations. As of the end of 2025, cash on hand was about RMB 4.72B, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.2%. While debt burden is light, the high burn rate makes the company highly dependent on market confidence in its funding pipeline.

Summary

ZHIPU’s breakthrough past HKD 1,900 (temporarily reported at HKD 1,905) results from the resonance of product iteration (full release of GLM-5.2), capital structure (inclusion in Hong Kong Stock Connect), and institutional endorsement (JPMorgan’s target price upgrade). This rally has nearly doubled the price from the mid-June low and is just one step away from the all-time high.

However, the extremely low input-output ratio (burning RMB 6.5 to earn RMB 1), declining gross margin (41%), and sky-high PS ratio (hundreds of times) pose significant valuation pressures. The bulls believe that leading model capabilities and market expansion can sustain the premium, while bears argue that valuation has detached from fundamentals.

The proximity to the previous high indicates the market is re-pricing Zhipu’s value, but whether this pricing can be sustained ultimately depends on product commercialization progress, competitive landscape evolution, and capital flow dynamics.

FAQ

Q1: What are the main drivers behind ZHIPU’s current rally?

The rally is driven by multiple resonating factors: the full release of GLM-5.2 enhances market expectations of product competitiveness; the inclusion in Hong Kong Stock Connect on June 8 brings in southbound funds; JPMorgan’s upgrade to HKD 1,400 on June 15 further boosts market sentiment.

Q2: How does ZHIPU’s current valuation look?

Based on current prices, ZHIPU’s PS ratio is extremely high, with some analysts citing a PS of 773 times. The company’s 2025 revenue was RMB 724 million, but net loss was RMB 4.718 billion, reflecting high growth coupled with high losses.

Q3: How far is ZHIPU from its previous high?

ZHIPU’s 52-week high was HKD 1,993, touched intraday on May 29. As of June 18, 2026, based on Gate data, ZHIPU is temporarily reported at HKD 1,905, just one step away from the previous high.

Q4: What risks should investors watch when investing in ZHIPU?

Main risks include: performance realization risk (whether the 2026 high growth can be achieved), worsening competitive landscape (AI price war eroding margins), and market sentiment reversal risk (high valuation sensitive to macro or policy changes).

Q5: What does the valuation gap between ZHIPU and competitors imply?

Competitor MiniMax’s revenue is RMB 570 million but its market cap is less than one-tenth of Zhipu’s. This divergence reflects different market pricing of their strategic paths—Zhipu focusing on large language models, while MiniMax emphasizes broader areas like video generation and consumer applications.