6.18 Bitcoin Market Trend Analysis

I. Core Market Drivers
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but Waller's press conference was clearly hawkish, removing easing language and delaying rate cut expectations, putting risk assets under pressure, and causing significant volatility in the crypto market. Bitcoin surged to 66,400 before encountering concentrated selling pressure, with the high point continuously moving lower, and the main bearish wave officially beginning. The previous rebound was only a false rally driven by news sentiment.
II. Market Trend Judgment
Currently, the overall market is weak, with the moving averages firmly suppressing the downside. The slight rebound after a sharp decline is just a technical retracement during the downtrend, with no conditions for a reversal and upward movement. The current price range: 64,500–64,700, with short-term weak consolidation and preparation for further decline.
III. Morning Trading Strategy
Core idea: Focus on shorting rebounds, avoid bottom fishing, and do not go against the trend.
Entry: Short near the rebound around 65,300.
Target: First target 63,800; if broken, follow the trend towards around 62,000.
Risk control: Volatility is high, strictly set stop-losses, tightly control position sizes, and avoid holding through large swings or chasing trades.
IV. Market Summary
Macroeconomic sentiment has turned bearish, and technical indicators are weakening. This round clearly shows a bearish trend. All rebounds are for market correction. In the morning, priority is given to shorting high rebounds.
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