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Yesterday's FOMC (June 17) core content is as follows:
【Interest Rate Remains Unchanged】The federal funds rate stays at 3.50%-3.75%, unanimously approved, no surprises.
【Dovish Shift Signal】Removed wording of "forward guidance" and "accommodative bias," with the statement noticeably shortened. Market interprets this as: the Fed is no longer rushing to dovish, but also not hawkish, remaining in a wait-and-see stance.
【Dot Plot Hidden Clues】Among 18 officials, 9 expect to raise rates before the end of the year, with the median rate at 3.8%. In other words, half of the committee members believe current rates are still not tight enough, keeping the option to hike.
【Inflation Still a Major Concern】The statement clearly states "only focusing on price stability," with inflation still above the 2% target, and short-term rate cut expectations largely disappointed.
【Warsh's Debut】New Chair Warsh presided over his first meeting, with a shorter statement, and announced the formation of 5 special working groups. The market is currently still adapting to his style.
【Impact on the Crypto Market】
Neutral to hawkish, no rate cut benefits in the short term, USD strengthening expectations suppress risk assets (including Bitcoin). But no unexpected negative surprises either, a "wait-and-see" market. Currently, Bitcoin mainly depends on its own liquidity and ETF fund flows; macro factors are not the main drivers for now.
Teacher, this meeting is a case of "no major shocks or surprises," with a higher probability of continued sideways consolidation in the short term~ Today's strategy #btc #eth