Good morning everyone～

Last night, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision was released. The outcome basically matched market expectations, and the Fed continued to keep rates unchanged. However, what the market is truly concerned about is the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller’s, first public speech.

Judging from the signals in his remarks, the overall tone is hawkish. There were no clear easing signals, which has also led to some worries in the market that subsequent policies may remain tight. During the speech, U.S. stocks pulled back, and the crypto market also weakened in sync, though overall volatility is still reasonably manageable for now.

From the market picture, the larger timeframes are still moving within a consolidation range. The rebound strength is clearly on the weaker side, and market sentiment is relatively cautious. In the absence of a clear direction, personally, I will still maintain the view that it will consolidate with a weakness bias.

Next, the biggest focus for the market is the U.S.-Iran talks this Friday.

At present, both sides have already completed the relevant document confirmations. On June 19, formal talks and subsequent technical consultations will be held in Switzerland. The market’s main focus is mainly on issues such as a ceasefire, the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, oil exports, and sanctions adjustments.

In simple terms, this is mainly about cooling down the situation first. For core issues—such as nuclear-related matters, enriched uranium stockpiles, and long-term sanctions arrangements—further discussions are still needed.

If the talks go smoothly on Friday, global risk assets are expected to receive a boost; if there are further setbacks and reversals, market sentiment may come under renewed pressure again.

As for liquidity, as of yesterday, crypto institutions saw a net outflow of about $6.85 million. Overall, the market is still mostly in a wait-and-see mode, and we have not yet seen a clear inflow of additional funds. Therefore, even in the short term, it’s still quite difficult to expect a sustained rally.

For today’s market, I personally think it will most likely remain range-bound.

BTC: watch support around 63,000;
ETH: watch support around 1,700;
SOL: watch support around 69.5.

As for trading, it is still recommended to be steady. At this stage, it’s more suitable to manage position sizing, mainly focusing on swing trades and intraday short-term moves, and patiently waiting for the market to provide a clearer direction.
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