June 18th, early morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as scheduled, but the "hawkish debut" of new Chair Powell brought an unexpected shock to the crypto market.

📉 Short-term market review: Expectations fall short, market "vote with their feet"

After the announcement, the crypto market responded quickly with a negative reaction:

· Price decline: Bitcoin briefly fell over 1%, hitting a low of about $64,600; Ethereum dropped below $1,750, down approximately 2.4% in 24 hours.
· Market sentiment hit: Over the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached $435 million, with over 100k traders liquidated. Bitcoin’s weak rebound over the past three days was completely wiped out.
· Correlation effect: The downturn in the crypto space was not isolated; during the same period, the three major US stock indices all fell over 1%, gold dropped 1.66%, and the US dollar index surged 0.87%.

🔍 Core logic analysis: Why did "standing pat" become a bearish signal?

The reason why this "unchanged" decision was so impactful is that the core of market trading has never been "interest rate unchanged," but rather "expectation gap." Three hawkish signals completely shattered the market’s hopes for easing:

1. Dot plot "from dove to hawk": The dot plot shows that the median interest rate by the end of 2026 was sharply raised from 3.4% in March to 3.8%. Among 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 predicting at least two hikes.
2. Statement removes rate cut guidance: The post-meeting statement removed previous language hinting at a possible rate cut in the future, and was significantly shortened to about 130 words (compared to over 300 last time), completely closing the door on rate cuts this year.
3. Inflation expectations sharply raised: The 2026 PCE inflation forecast was increased from 2.7% to 3.6%, acknowledging that inflation is more sticky than previously expected.

🔭 Market trend projection

1. Short-term (next few weeks): Volatility with downward bias, digesting hawkish signals
This is the current core state. The market needs time to digest the hawkish shift, and risk appetite is unlikely to recover in the short term. Technically, Bitcoin is oscillating near the $65,000 level, with heavy resistance above ($66,800–$67,300), and support at around $64,000.

2. Mid-term (next few months): Focus on two key variables

· Inflation data: If subsequent CPI and other data show controlled inflation, rate hike expectations may ease, giving the market a breather; otherwise, hawkish stance will be reinforced, suppressing crypto prices.
· Powell’s new policy framework: Powell announced the formation of a working group for comprehensive reform. If he successfully guides the Fed into a "less forward guidance" framework, the market will lose an important policy anchor, potentially increasing volatility.

3. Long-term (more than half a year): Rebuilding pricing logic
This meeting marks the end of the "easing narrative" that has been in place since 2025. Cryptocurrencies will enter a new cycle dominated by "higher for longer" interest rates. If the Bank of Japan also hikes rates, global liquidity will tighten systematically, posing a harsher test for leverage environments.

In summary, the June 18, 2026, Fed policy meeting has become a significant watershed in the global risk asset pricing logic. For the crypto space, the "water buffalo" logic supporting the bull market over the past two years is receding, and the market needs to find new narratives and valuation anchors. In this process, high volatility will be the norm, and risk management is more important than ever. #沃什首秀美联储利率不变