ETH Market Special Trend Analysis and Forecast

Analysis Time: 2026.06.18 09:49
Current Price: 1754 USDT

1. Multi-cycle Technical Overview

1. Monthly Chart Dimension
Monthly Bollinger upper band 4429, middle band 2789, lower band 1150, continuing a large-scale downtrend from the historical high of 4956, currently well below the monthly middle band, indicating a clear medium to long-term bearish pattern. There are three dense trapped zones above at 2000, 2800, and 4400, with significant selling pressure during rebounds.
2. Weekly Chart Dimension
Weekly Bollinger range 1671~2442, middle band 2057, current price 1754 is below the weekly middle band. Weekly MACD double lines continue downward, overall in a weak recovery phase. 2050 is a strong medium-term resistance level, difficult to break in one attempt.
3. Daily Chart Dimension
Daily Bollinger upper band 2016, middle band 1755, lower band 1494, current price 1754 nearly touches the daily Bollinger middle band. Slight decline within the day, 24-hour range 1725-1810, with bulls and bears fighting around the middle band; daily MACD shows a weak narrowing of the bearish divergence, no clear reversal golden cross signal, rebound lacks volume support.
4. 4-Hour Chart Dimension
4H Bollinger upper band 1793, middle band 1762, lower band 1731, current price 1754 is under pressure below the middle band. Bollinger bands are narrowing, short-term volatility compressed, bulls and bears about to choose direction; MACD below zero line shows slight recovery, upward momentum insufficient.
5. 1-Hour Short-term Dimension
1H Bollinger bands highly converged, range 1731-1793, current price near the lower middle band, short-term support at 1731, resistance at 1793. Narrow range consolidation, momentum weak for a one-sided move.

Core Key Support and Resistance

Short-term vital support: 1731 (4H Bollinger lower band, a break below indicates short-term weakening)
Stage strong supports: 1655, 1505 (double bottom positions in this correction, medium-term undervalued zones)
First short-term resistance: 1762, 1793
Medium-term strong resistance: 2016, 2057 (daily and weekly middle bands, large trapped positions)

2. Complete Multi-cycle Trend Forecast

Short-term (1~3 trading days)

Price maintains a narrow range of 1731—1793, waiting for volume breakout to determine direction.

1. Bullish Scenario: Volume breaks above 1793, slight rebound towards 1850, but heavy selling pressure at 2000. Rebound is suitable for reducing positions, not for chasing longs;
2. Bearish Scenario: Effective break below 1731 support, testing the previous low at 1655, further digesting trapped selling pressure.
Currently, BTC overall weak, ETH linked to the market weakness, independent rally unlikely, short-term risk-reward ratio is low.

Medium-term (1~4 weeks)

Market is fully anchored to BTC market, Federal Reserve liquidity, and Ethereum staking funds, with two divergence paths:

1. Rebound Repair Path
Trigger conditions: BTC stabilizes and rebounds, easing rate cut expectations, ETH staking outflows slow; price rebounds to 2000~2057 weekly resistance zone, after which trapped positions are concentrated and profit-taking occurs, with a short rebound cycle.
2. Deep Correction Path
Trigger conditions: USD strengthens, ETF funds continue to flow out, on-chain DeFi and NFT activity remain sluggish; price revisits the undervalued zone of 1500~1650, opening medium-term correction space.

Long-term (monthly level)

As the leading public chain, ETH’s staking burn and Layer2 expansion fundamentals remain unchanged, but short-term ecological incremental growth is insufficient, valuation remains under pressure. Optimal long-term range: 1490~1650, current price in the neutral middle zone, suitable for small proportion phased investment; if breaking below 1505 key bottom, slow down the investment pace and wait for lower prices.

3. Practical Positioning and Operation Ideas

1. Long-term spot core position (holding over 6 months)
Gradually accumulate in small portions at current price, adding one layer every 100-point drop, with a long-term stop loss at 1505; during rebounds above 2000, reduce positions in batches to lower average cost.
2. Short-term swing traders (holding 1~2 weeks)
Take profit and reduce positions in the 1780-1793 rebound zone, with strict stop-loss at 1731, exit immediately if broken; avoid high leverage and heavy bets, as BTC volatility risks sharp spikes.
3. High-position deep trapped holdings (cost > 2400)
Prohibit adding at current price to dilute costs; during each rebound above 1950, reduce positions in batches, compress total holdings, wait for a dip below 1650 to lower average cost.
4. Cash-only observers
In the short term, only small positions attempt longs near 1731, with a stop-loss at 1720, target 1790; long-term, wait for a dip below 1650 to initiate regular investments, with higher safety margin.

4. Core Risks Suppressing the Market

1. Continued high-interest-rate environment from the Federal Reserve, overall valuation of risk assets declines, ETH linked to BTC weakens;
2. Ethereum Layer2 user growth and trading volume underperform, staking unlock selling pressure persists;
3. Crypto market funds continue to flow into BTC for safe haven, altcoin sector incremental funds dry up;
4. Global crypto regulation tightens, institutional expectations for ETH spot ETFs cool down.

ETH, like the vital organ responsible for blood circulation in the crypto market, supports DeFi, NFT, and Layer2 ecosystems, with an endogenous mechanism of staking burn and blood production. However, currently, short-term blood flow is insufficient, ecological incremental growth is below expectations, compounded by ongoing market weakness. According to clinical layered risk management, long-term small-position phased accumulation is advisable, while aggressive chasing of gains is not suitable in the short term. Only a dip to the undervalued zone of 1500-1650 offers a highly cost-effective long-term accumulation window. I will continue to monitor BTC market, Federal Reserve liquidity, and on-chain staking data, providing real-time updates on market judgment and operational strategies.