$XAUT It was a difficult evening for gold. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot was far more hawkish than the market expected. The median interest rate projection for the end of 2026 jumped from 3.4% in March to 3.8%. Nine out of 18 officials foresee an interest rate hike by the end of the year. This alone was enough to hit gold.

What did the market do?

Spot gold experienced a sharp move in the 4,330-4,280 range. Specifically for XAUT, after being squeezed between 4,289 and 4,336, a downward breakout occurred. Volume was roughly double the 7-day average. So the decline was significant and high-volume.

Technical overview

The daily chart is still bearish. MA7 is below MA30, and MA30 is below MA120. This means the medium-to-long-term trend hasn't reversed yet. However, there is a bottom divergence on the 15-minute and daily MACDs. The downward momentum is weakening. The uptrend is maintained with PDI > MDI and ADX at 29.8 in the 4-hour chart. KDJ's J value is in the overbought region at 108.27. This indicates a high risk of a pullback when encountering resistance above.

Support and Resistance Levels

Nearby support is the 4.255-4.280 band. This coincides with the 4-hour MA30. Below, 4.250 is critical. Below that are 4.120 and 4.020. 4.020 was XAUT's local low in May-June.

Above, the 4.336-4.400 resistance zone. If there is a breakout above 4.400 with high volume, 4.550-4.750 can be targeted. The 4.266-4.286 region is also the upper Bollinger band and short-term resistance.

XAUT Specifically

Tether Gold's market capitalization is currently approximately $2.3 billion. Tether physically holds 116 tons of gold. XAUT is traded on Ethereum and Tron, providing liquidity even when the traditional gold market is closed.

So what happens now?

In the short term, the biggest risk for gold is the strengthening expectation of interest rate hikes. The 2-year Treasury yield has jumped to 4.2%. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. As bond yields rise, gold's attractiveness decreases. It's a simple equation.

But in the medium term, there are still factors supporting gold. Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran deal. Central banks are still buying gold. Inflation is at 4.2%. These haven't disappeared.

The most logical scenario for XAUT is that it will try to hold in the 4,250-4,280 region. If it holds there, a rebound towards 4,336-4,400 may occur. But if 4,250 is broken, 4,120 and 4,020 are on the horizon.

The biggest problem with trading on Fed days is this: the market hasn't yet found its direction. They simply liquidated. The situation is no different for gold. We need to be patient, monitor the levels, and not rush.

#MyGateTradeStory on #fed days
⚠️ Not financial advice.