Yesterday, the entire day was suppressed by two major negative factors: rising geopolitical conflict risks and the market preemptively pricing in a hawkish Federal Reserve policy overnight. Capital continued to flow out throughout the day, resulting in a pattern of initial rally followed by a pullback, a sharp decline, and a slight recovery after a volatile downward trend. The morning market was able to maintain a range-bound oscillation, but bullish momentum gradually weakened. In the afternoon, selling pressure was concentrated and released, with Bitcoin falling all the way down, stopping its decline only after touching the support level at 64,525. Ethereum also weakened simultaneously, dropping to around 1,740. In the evening, based on low-level support, a oversold rebound occurred, with Bitcoin bouncing back to around 65,260 before facing resistance and falling back. It is currently stable in the 65,024 range. Ethereum rebounded above 1,760 but encountered resistance, and the current price is around 1,750, oscillating and consolidating.

Yesterday’s real trading positions:
Bitcoin: Entered at 65,485, exited at 66,078, gaining 593 points
Kongdan: Entered at 65,992, exited at 65,237, gaining 75 points
Kongdan: Entered at 65,006, exited at 64,677, gaining 329 points
Kongdan: Entered at 65,605, exited at 65,045, gaining 560 points

Duo Dan: Entered at 65,054, exited at 66,042, gaining 988 points
Ethereum Kongdan: Entered at 1,807, exited at 1,768, gaining 39 points

In the early morning, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve was confirmed, leading to a concentration of profit-taking by bullish traders, causing a sharp plunge in the market. The rebound from last night was almost fully retraced. Bitcoin’s current price is 64,326. After rising to 66,419, it quickly dropped to a low of 63,881. The 15-minute Bollinger Bands turned downward, and the price was under pressure below the middle band at 64,658. Capital continued to flow out, and the short-term rebound lacked support from additional funds. Ethereum’s weakness was more pronounced than Bitcoin’s; the current price is 1,742, a significant retreat from the high of 1,809. It broke below the Bollinger middle band at 1,749, with heavy selling pressure accumulating in the 1,750-1,780 range. The short-term support is at 1,724.

The overall outlook is likely to remain weak and volatile, with little chance of a sustained upward trend. Price rebounds will first test the Bollinger middle band resistance. The short-term key levels are 64,658 for Bitcoin and 1,750 for Ethereum; these are the dividing lines between bulls and bears. If bullish momentum weakens and cannot be sustained, the market will revisit the intraday lows. Only if multiple dips do not create new lows can the market gradually rebuild momentum.

As the hawkish Federal Reserve expectations materialize and the dollar remains strong, a short-term weak pattern is confirmed. Trading should follow a range-bound approach: sell near resistance during rebounds, and buy lightly on dips that do not break new lows. Looking at a longer cycle, the upward channel remains intact; this decline is just a phase adjustment caused by macro news. Once the market shows signs of stabilizing and stopping the decline, a low-level entry window will open for safer positions.

Thursday morning trading strategy:
Bitcoin around 64,700-64,800, target 63,000
Ethereum around 1,770-1,780, target 1,670