#BitcoinBouncesBack

Today promises to become one of the busiest days for financial markets within the current monthly dynamics. Today’s focus is on two macroeconomic events at once, capable of setting the direction for risk assets over the coming weeks. In the first half of the day, at 15:30 Moscow time, May retail sales data for the United States—as well as their core component—will be published. These figures are traditionally seen as a gauge of consumer confidence and, accordingly, of inflationary pressure. A little later, at 17:30, a report on crude oil inventories will be released, but the main intrigue is undoubtedly tied to the evening session: at 21:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision, and half an hour later, a press conference with the Fed chair will begin, during which signals regarding future steps of monetary policy are expected to be given.

The market is frozen in anticipation, and this period is made especially vulnerable by the combination of a potentially strong retail-trade report and the regulator’s firm/hawkish rhetoric. If consumer spending turns out to be higher than forecasts, and the Fed confirms its commitment to a “hawkish” course, risk assets, including Bitcoin, could face a new wave of pressure. The most volatile, judging by everything, will likely be the half-hour interval between the rate announcement and the start of the press conference—this is exactly when traders will be forming the first interpretations of the decision.

Let’s turn to the technical picture of the first cryptocurrency. On the daily chart, the BTCUSDT price is holding around $65,168, which practically matches the low of the last 24 hours ($65,110). The upward channel supported by the SAR indicator at 62,063 remains in place, but the current price position below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (65,640) is concerning. The upper boundary of this range lies at 73,790, and the lower at 57,489, indicating elevated volatility and a potential movement amplitude in the event of a breakout.

The oscillators are sending conflicting signals. The MACD histogram is heading into negative territory, and the indicator line itself (647) is noticeably below the signal line (2,394)—a classic bearish pattern, though not especially strong. Meanwhile, the KDJ indices show overbought conditions in the short term (the J value reaches 84.5), which often comes before a correction. However, the RSI with a 12-period setting is at 27.7, indicating deep oversold conditions, while the 6- and 24-period versions of the indicator remain in a neutral or moderately negative zone. This kind of divergence points to internal uncertainty: bullish and bearish sentiment are not yet ready to take control.

Thus, Bitcoin will be hovering near the critical support level of $65,100. If the Fed’s evening rhetoric proves to be more hawkish than expected, testing the $62,000 level—coinciding with the SAR line—is not out of the question. Conversely, a softer tone, or a hint of a pause in policy tightening, could trigger a rebound into the 66,900–67,500 area, where the volume from prior sell-offs is concentrated. At the same time, it’s important to consider that daily trading volume exceeds $3.7 billion with nearly 57.5 thousand BTC—liquidity is sufficient to form sharp candles, and false moves in the first minutes after releases are not uncommon.

In this situation, it would be prudent to wait until the press conference ends, without opening large positions without clear trend confirmation. Trading near key levels requires heightened discipline, and today is precisely the case where patience may turn out to be more valuable than speed.

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