Iran was very direct this time. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei has confirmed that they will not charge a "toll fee." Instead, they will impose a "maritime service fee." This covers navigation guidance, environmental measures, and vessel insurance. The message is very clear—"traffic management and service provision are different from the past."

The most critical point is actually the timing. The White House itself has admitted that the "toll fee exemption" in the agreement lasts only 60 days. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency also said very straightforwardly—that after 60 days, they will start collecting the service fee.

The oil market has already reacted. After the announcement of the agreement, oil prices plummeted, with Brent dropping to $78.74, and WTI at $75.85. Before the conflict, prices were only in the sixties per barrel. This current price essentially removes some of the geopolitical premium but has not fully returned to pre-war levels.

But don’t get too happy too early. Several practical issues remain. First, shipowners simply dare not move—insurance companies’ war risk premiums are still high, and in the past 96 hours, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has not issued any transit permits, with over 500 ships stuck in the Gulf. Second, infrastructure has been damaged—Iran’s retaliatory strikes have wrecked oil and gas facilities in several Gulf countries, and recovery will take time. Third, Israel is still active in southern Lebanon, and Iran has warned of "severe responses."

The industry is already adjusting. Analysts say that future energy logistics will shift from a "just-in-time" model to a "precautionary" one—more storage, more flexible shipping, and more diversified sourcing. The UAE is already accelerating the construction of new pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

To put it simply, Iran is very clever this time—packaging "collecting money" as "providing services." Trump said "free," Iran says "service fee." In the end, it’s likely both sides will stick to their story, but in reality, the money will still be collected. For oil prices, the short-term negative impact has mostly been absorbed, but in the medium term, costs will definitely rise—these service fees will eventually be passed on to consumers. Moreover, the 60-day period is the real battleground; how much they charge and how they do it will be a new round of tug-of-war.

The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil supply. This cake is too big for Iran to easily give up.

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