What appears to be feigning deafness and silence is actually the cry of an eagle! In-depth analysis of the upcoming market trend!

The key points of tonight's analysis are as follows~

1. The policy statement completely removes language favoring interest rate cuts
Previously, the draft implied "a high probability of a rate cut next," but this time it was entirely eliminated, no longer giving the market expectations of easing, shifting the policy stance from "pause in the rate cut cycle" to neutral on both sides, effectively closing the door on rate cuts this year.

2. The dot plot fully revises upward the interest rate and inflation expectations

Median interest rate in 2026 is 3.75% (March expectation was 3.4%), removing expectations of rate cuts within the year.

Among 18 forecasted officials, 9 bet on at least one rate hike this year, 6 predict two hikes;

Raise the 2026 core PCE inflation to 3.3%, acknowledging inflation persistence far exceeding previous judgments.

3. Inflation priority absolutely outweighs employment
The press conference repeatedly emphasized: five years of inflation have not returned to the 2% target, stabilizing prices is the Federal Reserve's primary mission, and even if the economy and employment are under pressure, monetary easing will not be easily relaxed.

4. The decision was unanimously approved 12:0
Previous meetings saw dovish officials calling for rate cuts, but this time there was no dissent, and the committee's overall tightening consensus was formed.
Seemingly easing, but the language remains neutral without changing the hawkish core (markets will not interpret it as dovish).

Throughout the entire press conference, there were no hints of easing, no dovish signals at all.

1. No mention that economic weakness would lead to rate cuts
2. No downward revision of inflation expectations
3. No indication of starting a rate cut cycle in Q4
4. No slowdown in balance sheet reduction plans, maintaining the monthly reduction pace of 95 billion.

After the press conference, the market immediately moved into a typical hawkish rally, with the pricing confirming the most direct judgment! The dollar index surged significantly, U.S. Treasury yields for 2/10 years rose in tandem, U.S. stocks (Nasdaq), gold, and Bitcoin all plunged; fully reflecting the "tightening expectations heating up" asset response.

For the future, there's no need for me to emphasize further—The Federal Reserve's big bearish trend remains obvious, and rebound oscillations are just a cover. Moreover, in the short, medium, and long term, these days, gradually lightening positions with slight rebounds is advisable, entering in batches without over-relying on specific levels, just controlling positions. Look at 56,600-53,800 on the downside. For Bitcoin, watch the 1460-1180 range! When the big bear market truly arrives, whether you can catch it depends on your choices and outlook! Good night, crypto folks! #SpaceX市值超越微软跻身全球前五 #美联储 $BTC $ETH $SOL