Two Major Events Tonight

(1) Tonight's FOMC Meeting
(2) The U.S.-Iran Temporary Ceasefire / Memorandum of Understanding on the 19th
These two events will determine whether there will be a sharp decline or a rebound in the near future.
June 19th is a key milestone for the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire / memorandum of understanding.
The main contents of the agreement include:
1. Extend the ceasefire for 60 days
2. The U.S. lifts sanctions on Iranian ports
3. Iran reopens the Strait, allowing oil tankers to resume passage
4. Iran resumes partial oil exports and enters subsequent nuclear negotiations
If the agreement is reached, inflation will decrease, and the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish pressure will also lessen. This is generally positive for U.S. stocks and risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
The market widely expects that tonight's FOMC meeting will keep interest rates unchanged.
So, what to watch tonight is not the interest rate decision itself, but two things:
1. Will the dot plot signal a more hawkish rate path?
2. Will Waller make his first appearance and adjust the Fed's communication framework?
If the dot plot is hawkish or Waller's speech is hawkish, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies may decline.
If the dot plot aligns with expectations and Waller's comments are moderate, risk assets may continue to rebound.
Strategy reference in the chart below #btc #eth