🧵 1/ Starting a new line, focusing solely on tonight's 2:30 AM Warsh's first press conference.

The interest rate and dot plot are written in black and white, holding steady at 3.50-3.75%, with one more rate hike expected this year, and no action on balance sheet reduction.
But the white paper is finished, the real show is just beginning, this is the first time this hawkish new chair has spoken since taking office, and he is famously opposed to forward guidance, advocating that balance sheet reduction alone can tighten monetary policy without raising rates.
So, the shock is more likely to come from his words, not from the statement. I am watching four points:
1. The balance sheet reduction tone, no change on paper, will he sound hawkish in speech;
2. How he will justify the 3.8% rate hike in the dot plot;
3. With inflation blaming energy and employment cooling down, does he acknowledge it;
4. Whether he will conveniently adjust the communication framework, weaken or even eliminate the dot plot.