Tonight the Federal Reserve is meeting, and many people are waiting to see whether they will cut interest rates.

There’s no suspense about this tonight—rates will stay unchanged, which is already the market consensus.
There are two things truly worth watching.
First is the dot plot. The probability of a rate cut this year has shifted to “on hold,” but if the dot plot sends a more dovish signal than expected, the valuation pressure on tech stocks will directly ease.
Second is how Waller speaks. He’s the new chair, with a style completely different from Powell’s, and tonight marks his first real official remarks facing the market. His wording, his stance on balance sheet reduction, and how he describes the inflation path will all be parsed and reinterpreted by the market again and again.
Every sentence Waller says is a signal.