ninisweet

A friend told me that historically, $BTC has always fallen after midterm elections.
This is not a good time to use leverage or trade futures.
Let’s look at $BTC ’s price performance in November 2014, 2018, and 2022.
2014:
First, looking at 2014, we can see that the 200-day moving average on the daily chart was still trending down, and the price remained completely below it.
The price had not even broken above the downtrend line.
What does this have to do with the midterm elections? Wasn’t this simply a bear market?
2018:
The sharpest decline was in 2018, but the market action at the time was

The 6 levels of stock trading: Which one are you at?
1. Gambler: Goes all-in and trades frequently, chasing rallies and selling into declines—bound to lose.
2. Indicator slave: Obsessed with MACD and KDJ, thinking they’ve found the “Holy Grail,” but the market keeps proving them wrong.
3. Simplifies complexity: Only trades market conditions they understand, focuses on one strategy, and starts building a trading system.
4. Discipline is king: Strictly follows stop-loss and take-profit rules, respects the market, and focuses on surviving before making money.
5. Probability player: Accepts losses

The Only Thing Buffett Endorses
A Berkshire shareholder complained that the company had underperformed the S&P 500 for several consecutive years.
Buffett did not defend himself; instead, he advised him to simply buy an index fund.
“In fact, I’ve always advised people to invest in the S&P 500.”
Buffett believes Berkshire is a fairly solid choice for long-term investing, but if he had to bet his life on whether it could outperform the S&P 500 over the next 10 years, he absolutely would not do so.
He has also never promised any shareholder that Berkshire would definitely beat the market.
“The onl

The AI-era opportunity has once again been seized by ByteDance
Fun fact: Just how wild is Hongguo Short Drama?
1. In three years, it has wiped out more than a decade of gains by long-form video platforms
2. 168 million daily active users, compared with just 155 million combined across iQiyi, Youku, Tencent Video, and Mango TV
3. It surpassed 200 million in September, overtaking Kuaishou too
4. Users watch for 125 minutes a day on average, while viewing time on iQiyi, Youku, Tencent Video, and Mango TV has nearly halved in a year
5. Annual revenue of over 40 billion, nearly matching the entire

Many people admire Buffett and think he’s a business genius, with a keen eye for financial statements and a knack for precise valuations.
But the more I read about him, the more I feel that Buffett’s most underrated talent isn’t his intelligence at all—it’s his personality.
Buffett himself has said countless times that investment success doesn’t require exceptional intelligence, just the right temperament.
That sounds like humblebragging, but think about it carefully:
Who doesn’t know investing takes patience? Who doesn’t know you need to think independently? Who doesn’t know you should be gre

Take it slowly, and you'll become very wealthy one day
Munger once said something that I copied into my notebook.
He said: As long as we take steady steps, avoid major mistakes and foolish things, and take it slowly, we'll become very wealthy one day.
We've never doubted it; we're never in a hurry.
The last sentence was: No matter how smart you are, it takes time.
The first time I saw that sentence, I was stunned for a long time.
The logic drilled into us from childhood is: be smart, work hard, move fast, and you can win.
But compound interest doesn't play by those rules. The only ingredient i

The Nasdaq is down 10%—how long has it historically taken to recover?
The Nasdaq plunged 3.5% in a single day. From its early October high, it is now down 9.5% overall, and at its intraday low it fell more than 10%—officially crossing the threshold commonly referred to as a “technical correction.”
Valuations after the drop:
The Nasdaq 100’s forward valuation is now back around 20x, at an extremely low percentile over the past 5 years and cheaper than it has been for most of that period;
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 35, in the fear zone, but not yet at the extreme levels of panic seen histo

Key Quotes from The Road to the Financial Freedom Revolution
【On Wealth】
1、Financial freedom isn’t “having enough money to spend,” but not selling your time, attention, emotions, and dignity for money.
2、Spiritual freedom comes before financial freedom. First find work you love, and money will naturally chase you.
3、Better the freedom of war than the slavery of peace. Don’t sell the right to choose your life for security.
4、True adulthood means being able to choose freely and being willing to bear the full cost of that choice.
5、The joy of rest comes from the contrast with work; continuous ple

Believe it or not, long-term thinking really can lead to financial freedom
1. Time is the fairest leverage; everyone can benefit from compounding.
2. Staying in the game matters more than moving fast; being able to remain at the table matters more than how much you win in one round.
3. You only need to save up 100k for your principal to work for you, gradually replacing your work income and generating compound returns. Of course, with 500k or 1 million, the compounding will happen faster.
4. Investing in yourself never loses; upgrading your understanding offers the highest returns.
5. Stay awa

Charlie Munger on cognition:
1. Every intelligent person I've met in my life reads every day. No exceptions.
2. Think in reverse, always in reverse. If you want to succeed, first study how to fail and how to avoid failure.
3. With a hammer icon in hand, everything looks like a nail. Don’t rely on just one mental model.
4. Make things simple, not complicated. Simple logic is often right.
5. Admit your mistakes quickly. Self-deception is the biggest trap for intelligent people.
The fact that you don’t like reading shows that you’re an ordinary person.
Let alone that the brain has dozens of menta

Putin on Elon Musk:
“Elon Musk is a real genius.
He’s an absolute super-genius.
I mean, just think about it.
How many satellites does he have in orbit now?
More than 5,000, while we’ve only just taken the first step… We stay in close contact with our U.S. partners,
including Mr. Musk, because it’s really important in the higher orbits not to get in each other’s way, in order to maintain a certain level of discipline and order.”
Terrifying when you think about it

Musk’s math: AI computing power investments can pay for themselves in less than a year.
SpaceX is preparing to arrange the largest GPU financing lease in history through institutions such as Apollo and Goldman Sachs,
mainly to purchase Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin GPUs and supporting equipment, with deliveries beginning in 2027.
Why not put up $40 billion itself?
Because if a GPU generates enough cash flow to cover its cost in less than a year, the smartest move is to borrow other people’s money and expand aggressively.
As long as “financing costs < returns on computing power,” the larg

After reading Buffett’s letter to shareholders, there’s one line that still leaves me deeply moved to this day!
He said she likes stock prices to fall—even the stocks she bought herself—the lower, the better!
On the one hand, if the stocks he bought keep falling, he can buy more!
On the other hand, even if he doesn’t want to buy more himself, as long as the stock price keeps falling, the company will use its funds to buy back shares, increasing his stake as a proportion of the total shares outstanding!
So he thinks the lower the stock price falls, the better!
That’s a whole new perspective! He

If you had 5 million ten years ago:
Buy Tesla, and 5 million would become 600 million
Buy Apple, and it would become 400 million
Buy BYD, and it could reach 300 million
Buy Moutai, and it would rise to 200 million
Buy gold, and you’d have about 15 million
Buy the Crude Oil Treasure product back then, and you’d lose your entire principal
So here’s the question: If you had 5 million now, what would you invest in and hold for ten years?

Munger's lifetime wealth curve:
Age 30 (1953): Divorced, burdened with debt, wealth reduced to zero
Age 38 (1962): Founded an investment fund with $300,000 in capital
Age 49 (1973): Personal net worth of about $25 million (peak)
Age 50 (1974): Market crash + leverage; the fund lost 53.4% over two years, his personal wealth was halved to about $12 million, and he came close to bankruptcy
Age 60 (1984): About $50 million (slow recovery)
Age 66 (1990): Back to 1974 levels, about $2,500 (took 16 years)
Age 86 (2010): $1 billion+ (36 years from the age-50 trough to $100 million)
Age 96 (2020): $2 b