The early phase of Bitcoin's bull market may last much longer than most people expect.
Historical reference:
✅ 2019: Death cross to golden cross, took 10 months and 24 days
✅ 2023: Death cross to golden cross, took 12 months
✅ Current: This death cross cycle has lasted only 3 months and 18 days
Even if we've already left the bear market and entered the early bull market, don't expect the main rally to arrive immediately.
The early bull market is a long phase of holdings changing hands and cost-basis restructuring.

BTC-0.67%

ninisweet 2 days ago

U.S. stocks’ “super week” warning! Extreme volatility—watch your position size
The U.S. has ended daylight saving time! U.S. markets now open at 10:30 PM, and after-hours earnings are mostly announced at 5–6 AM the next day.
Three key things to watch:
1. Midterm elections: Vote counting begins on 11/04 (Wednesday) morning, directly impacting the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks.
2. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Released at 9:30 PM on 11/06 (Friday), determining the Fed’s rate-hike direction in December—don’t miss it!
3. Tech giants’ earnings:
AAPL・PLTR → 11/03 06:00
AMD → 11/04 05:00
QCOM・ARM →

AAPL-2.17%

PLTR-1.79%

AMD+3.79%

QCOM+1.50%

ARM+3.07%

1.96k

ninisweet 3 days ago

Take it slowly, and you'll become very wealthy one day
Munger once said something that I copied into my notebook.
He said: As long as we take steady steps, avoid major mistakes and foolish things, and take it slowly, we'll become very wealthy one day.
We've never doubted it; we're never in a hurry.
The last sentence was: No matter how smart you are, it takes time.
The first time I saw that sentence, I was stunned for a long time.
The logic drilled into us from childhood is: be smart, work hard, move fast, and you can win.
But compound interest doesn't play by those rules. The only ingredient i

ninisweet 3 days ago

The Nasdaq is down 10%—how long has it historically taken to recover?
The Nasdaq plunged 3.5% in a single day. From its early October high, it is now down 9.5% overall, and at its intraday low it fell more than 10%—officially crossing the threshold commonly referred to as a “technical correction.”
Valuations after the drop:
The Nasdaq 100’s forward valuation is now back around 20x, at an extremely low percentile over the past 5 years and cheaper than it has been for most of that period;
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 35, in the fear zone, but not yet at the extreme levels of panic seen histo

ninisweet 2026-10-31

Key Quotes from The Road to the Financial Freedom Revolution
【On Wealth】
1、Financial freedom isn’t “having enough money to spend,” but not selling your time, attention, emotions, and dignity for money.
2、Spiritual freedom comes before financial freedom. First find work you love, and money will naturally chase you.
3、Better the freedom of war than the slavery of peace. Don’t sell the right to choose your life for security.
4、True adulthood means being able to choose freely and being willing to bear the full cost of that choice.
5、The joy of rest comes from the contrast with work; continuous ple

ninisweet 2026-10-30

Believe it or not, long-term thinking really can lead to financial freedom
1. Time is the fairest leverage; everyone can benefit from compounding.
2. Staying in the game matters more than moving fast; being able to remain at the table matters more than how much you win in one round.
3. You only need to save up 100k for your principal to work for you, gradually replacing your work income and generating compound returns. Of course, with 500k or 1 million, the compounding will happen faster.
4. Investing in yourself never loses; upgrading your understanding offers the highest returns.
5. Stay awa

ninisweet 2026-10-29

Charlie Munger on cognition:
1. Every intelligent person I've met in my life reads every day. No exceptions.
2. Think in reverse, always in reverse. If you want to succeed, first study how to fail and how to avoid failure.
3. With a hammer icon in hand, everything looks like a nail. Don’t rely on just one mental model.
4. Make things simple, not complicated. Simple logic is often right.
5. Admit your mistakes quickly. Self-deception is the biggest trap for intelligent people.
The fact that you don’t like reading shows that you’re an ordinary person.
Let alone that the brain has dozens of menta

ninisweet 2026-10-29

Looking at global asset gains over the past decade, the contrast among the top-performing categories is striking.
Bitcoin surged from under $400 in 2014 to a peak above $70,000 in 2024, a gain of more than 170x, leaving the vast majority of traditional assets far behind.
The semiconductor sector also soared: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 7x over ten years, while core stocks like NVIDIA icon and AMD icon posted gains of dozens of times.
The Nasdaq rose more than 3x over the decade, while Taiwan’s weighted index climbed from just over 8,000 to 19,000 points, a gain of over 130

BTC-0.67%

1
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ninisweet 2026-10-29

Putin on Elon Musk:
“Elon Musk is a real genius.
He’s an absolute super-genius.
I mean, just think about it.
How many satellites does he have in orbit now?
More than 5,000, while we’ve only just taken the first step… We stay in close contact with our U.S. partners,
including Mr. Musk, because it’s really important in the higher orbits not to get in each other’s way, in order to maintain a certain level of discipline and order.”
Terrifying when you think about it

ninisweet 2026-10-28

Musk’s math: AI computing power investments can pay for themselves in less than a year.
SpaceX is preparing to arrange the largest GPU financing lease in history through institutions such as Apollo and Goldman Sachs,
mainly to purchase Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin GPUs and supporting equipment, with deliveries beginning in 2027.
Why not put up $40 billion itself?
Because if a GPU generates enough cash flow to cover its cost in less than a year, the smartest move is to borrow other people’s money and expand aggressively.
As long as “financing costs < returns on computing power,” the larg

GS-0.33%

NVDA+2.15%

MSFT+2.69%

1
1.91k

ninisweet 2026-10-28

After reading Buffett’s letter to shareholders, there’s one line that still leaves me deeply moved to this day!
He said she likes stock prices to fall—even the stocks she bought herself—the lower, the better!
On the one hand, if the stocks he bought keep falling, he can buy more!
On the other hand, even if he doesn’t want to buy more himself, as long as the stock price keeps falling, the company will use its funds to buy back shares, increasing his stake as a proportion of the total shares outstanding!
So he thinks the lower the stock price falls, the better!
That’s a whole new perspective! He

ninisweet 2026-10-27

If you had 5 million ten years ago:
Buy Tesla, and 5 million would become 600 million
Buy Apple, and it would become 400 million
Buy BYD, and it could reach 300 million
Buy Moutai, and it would rise to 200 million
Buy gold, and you’d have about 15 million
Buy the Crude Oil Treasure product back then, and you’d lose your entire principal
So here’s the question: If you had 5 million now, what would you invest in and hold for ten years?

TSLA-1.41%

AAPL-2.17%

GLDX-0.40%

PAXG+0.37%

ninisweet 2026-10-26

Munger's lifetime wealth curve:
Age 30 (1953): Divorced, burdened with debt, wealth reduced to zero
Age 38 (1962): Founded an investment fund with $300,000 in capital
Age 49 (1973): Personal net worth of about $25 million (peak)
Age 50 (1974): Market crash + leverage; the fund lost 53.4% over two years, his personal wealth was halved to about $12 million, and he came close to bankruptcy
Age 60 (1984): About $50 million (slow recovery)
Age 66 (1990): Back to 1974 levels, about $2,500 (took 16 years)
Age 86 (2010): $1 billion+ (36 years from the age-50 trough to $100 million)
Age 96 (2020): $2 b

ninisweet 2026-10-26

Those who can hold onto the Nasdaq are slowly learning to master human nature
Those still holding the Nasdaq steadily have long since developed a great deal of patience.
I've seen too many people invest in the Nasdaq: they're overjoyed when it surges, but the moment it pulls back 10%, they panic and ask everyone, “Is the Nasdaq about to plunge?”
The Nasdaq's long-term returns certainly look attractive, but many people see only the impressive gains and overlook the turbulence along the way.
A look at the historical record shows that the Nasdaq 100 has not followed a steady upward line.
During t

ninisweet 2026-10-25

Samsung and SK Hynix will report earnings next week,
with the market forecasting their combined quarterly operating profit to top 185 trillion won.
Everyone is watching how much they earned, but one crucial underlying detail is:
the absolute main driver of the profit explosion is high-priced AI memory (HBM),
while the price-rally logic for traditional general-purpose memory is slowing.
This is a classic case of high-end crowding out low-end.
All capacity is going toward stacking HBM to chase higher margins, leaving downstream high-end AI server capacity severely constrained.

SK Hynix-0.14%

3
1
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ninisweet 2026-10-24

What does the current exchange rate tell us?
I suddenly got curious and checked the exchange rates: wow, the yuan is up to 6.69 against the U.S. dollar and 8.96 against the British pound. Anyway, the yuan has appreciated against all foreign currencies.
A humble question: is this change because our economy has strengthened and foreign currencies have weakened, or is there some other economic principle at work?

2.2k

ninisweet 2026-10-23

So far: How much have you lost in the stock market?????
No lying—one number from each person.
The stocks Hu Xijin bought plunged, making his heart race. He quickly got the point: better to spend it on food than lose it in the market.
I always thought Hu Xijin, with a daily income of over 1,000, would be content to write articles,
and spend his free time strolling around and shopping at the supermarket with his family and grandchildren, enjoying life.
In outsiders’ eyes, Hu Xijin wasn’t short of money. He had worked in professional media his whole life and also received a pension, so the two co

1.16k

ninisweet 2026-10-23

Nasdaq bull and bear market cycles
Since 1971, the Nasdaq has gone through 9 bull-bear cycles
Longest bull market: 2009.02–2021.12, 154 months, +1035%, annualized 21%
Current bull market start: 2022.12; through 2026.10, +149.7%, 46 months, annualized 27%
The two most devastating bear markets: 2000–2002 -75%; 2022 -33%

NAS100-0.77%

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2.67k

ninisweet

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