June 17 BTC/ETH Market Evening Report — Focus on the Federal Reserve Rate Decision in the early morning

After a slight rebound during the day, Bitcoin began retracing, falling to around 64,500 in the evening; Ethereum surged up to around 1,810, then started to pull back to around 1,740. In the evening, the overall market briefly switched to a rebound mode, but afterward it may first see a short rebound before continuing to enter a downward trend. The specific thinking is as follows:

First, looking at the fundamentals:

The Federal Reserve FOMC interest-rate meeting is in progress, and the decision will be announced in the early morning of June 18. The market is almost fully pricing in that rates will be kept unchanged, but the focus is on the remarks about the future policy path in the first meeting presided over by the newly appointed Fed chair, Waller. The market’s probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates within 2026 has dropped to 0%, and the probability of at least a 25 basis point hike in December has reached about 70%. Federal funds futures show that investors expect the probability of rate hikes before December 2026 to exceed 80%.

On June 15, Iran and the U.S. confirmed that they had reached a ceasefire understanding memorandum, and the official signing ceremony is scheduled to be held in Geneva on June 19. Boosted by this, Bitcoin prices saw a period of rebound; as the geopolitical risk premium faded, it provided some support for risk assets. Therefore, recent short positions still need attention—trade with smaller sizing rather than going all-in to bet. The biggest thing we fear in trading is when fundamentals are uncertain. Based on the price action, there is a need for downside; based on the fundamentals, there is support in the short term. However, in my personal view, the impact from the news is only temporary—ultimately, it will still revert to technicals.

In the evening, Bitcoin’s daily chart briefly dipped below the Bollinger middle band and then quickly recovered. The recent rebound has not changed the bearish alignment of the moving averages. Resistance is around the 21-day moving average at 67,800. Resistance also appears around 67,400, where the four-hour Bollinger upper band and the 144 moving average are located. The current price around 66,300 faces short-term pressure, and there is also pressure near 66,666, as well as around 66,666 to (67,400–67,800). The strong pressure is around 68,500—this area is unlikely to be touched easily. These zones can be used to run another short-position battle with light sizing. The specific strategy ideas are as follows:

Bitcoin: Watch the resistance around 66,300–66,666–67,800. Paying close attention is needed to whether 68,500 can hold and stabilize. Targets to watch are around the downside areas 65,000–64,000–63,200–62,200.

Ethereum: Watch resistance around 1,795–1,820 and around 1,908. Watch downside supports at 1,740–1,680–1,640–1,780–1,500.

At present, the fundamentals dominate the market, so everything should be handled with light positions. Do not blindly go all-in! Focus on Waller’s speech in the early morning—this is only my personal opinion. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #预测世界杯英格兰VS克罗地亚