Tonight's FOMC interest rate decision is highly likely to hold steady; unchanged rates do not mean no volatility—the real variables are the dot plot and Waller's comments, and what truly triggers the market is Waller's first press conference—whether the dot plot removes rate cut guidance, whether the statement turns hawkish, whether inflation forecasts are revised upward, and whether Waller steers the Fed toward a new framework with less forward guidance.

Tonight's four key points: More important than the rate hike is "how they speak"

Point 1: Will the dot plot turn hawkish?

The March dot plot showed more members expecting a rate cut in 2026. But after this update, the market generally expects the rate cut guidance for 2026 to be officially removed, shifting to maintaining rates unchanged, and possibly early signals of rate hike expectations. CME FedWatch data shows the market's probability of a rate cut by the Fed in 2026 has dropped to 0%, and the probability of at least a 25bp rate hike in December has reached about 70%. If the dot plot shows a "rate hike branch," it will be the first since 2022—that's what it means for the crypto market: rising rate hike expectations → dollar strengthening → risk assets under pressure.

Point 2: Will the statement remove dovish language?

Goldman Sachs expects the meeting statement to only delete the phrase "the extent and timing of additional adjustments" regarding federal funds rate adjustments. But if it is deleted more thoroughly—such as completely removing easing bias—that would be a clear hawkish signal.

Point 3: Will inflation forecasts be significantly revised upward?

PCE inflation just hit a three-year high. If the Fed raises inflation forecasts, it implies acknowledgment that "inflation stickiness is stronger than expected"—which directly benefits rate hike expectations and is negative for crypto.

Point 4: Waller's new policy framework

The market will focus on whether Waller steers the Fed toward less forward guidance, weaker reliance on the dot plot, greater emphasis on the 2% inflation target, and a new policy framework that prioritizes balance sheet reduction. There are even reports that Waller might "refuse to submit" his personal dot plot expectations—if that happens, the market will lose its most important policy anchor, and short-term volatility could sharply increase.

Market status: BTC is consolidating around 66,000 with reduced volume, resistance at 66,800–67,300, support at 65,000–64,000; ETH is consolidating at 1,770, with resistance at 1,830–1,870, support at 1,720–1,700. Three scenarios: hawkish—BTC revisits 65,000–64,000, ETH revisits 1,720–1,700; neutral—range-bound consolidation awaiting further data; dovish—risk appetite ignites, BTC advances to 68,000–70,000, ETH pushes toward 1,850–1,900.

Core strategy: Light positions before the decision, avoid betting on direction; within 30 minutes after the decision, observe BTC at 65,000 and ETH at 1,720—hold if they stay above, turn bearish if broken. Confirm trend and follow accordingly—no guessing tops or bottoms.

Tonight's live stream will monitor the market in real-time—let's wait together for the direction.