Vosh's debut is approaching, tonight is highly likely to switch to a bullish rhythm

Today, the overall market was relatively weak throughout the day, with the ten-day rally and rebound lacking buying momentum. After breaking below a key support in the afternoon, it continued to decline, and the upward momentum on the daily chart has come to a halt. The market has already signaled a retreat consistent with the Fed's hawkish expectations.

This early morning at 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve's decision is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged. The real factors influencing the market are Vosh's first speech after taking office, the dot plot adjustments, and inflation expectations—three core elements. Currently, market expectations lean towards a hawkish stance. If signals of tightening liquidity and weakening rate cut prospects are released, the dollar will strengthen, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies will face concentrated selling pressure, likely accelerating the downward move.

Adding to the current escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions, Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the US-Iran agreement and indicated a restart of bombing actions, further increasing geopolitical risks and prompting capital to flee to safe havens. With multiple negative factors stacking up, the previously targeted wave of 55,000 may be reached earlier than expected.

Tonight, the short-term strategy is to follow the upward trend, with short-term resistance around 65,500-66,000, and the primary support at 64,500. A break below this support could open the way for deeper declines.

If the early morning speech leans dovish, the strategy will be adjusted to re-aim for a rebound. Currently, avoid blindly judging the direction; prioritize following the upward momentum during rebounds, strictly control positions to avoid large fluctuations caused by news. $BTC $ETH #预测世界杯英格兰VS克罗地亚