Deep analysis of Polymarket data—Is the 56.5% win rate reliable?

The data on Polymarket about this match is quite interesting. England's win probability is about 56.5%, a draw at 25.5%, and Croatia around 18%. Kalshi's data is similar—England 57%, draw 26%, Croatia 17%.

Compared to traditional betting, England's payout is roughly -138 (implied probability 58%), a draw +280 (26%), Croatia +450 (18%). The numbers on both sides are highly consistent, indicating a very clear market consensus: England has a higher chance of winning, but not overwhelmingly so, and the probability of a draw should not be ignored.

A detail worth noting: although England is the favorite, up to 75% of the capital in the betting market flows into England's outright win. This "hot" betting situation can sometimes be dangerous—if the match ends in a draw, a large amount of money on England could result in significant losses.

FOX Sports also mentioned an observation: early in the tournament, draws are more common, and blindly betting on England to win might carry higher risks than the odds suggest. Croatia has rich organization and experience, and is fully capable of controlling the game tightly and frustrating England's offensive ambitions. My strategy is: avoid betting on a big win for England, and instead allocate funds between "England small win" and "draw." For safety, double options on England win + draw might be the most rational choice.

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