Federal Reserve Wosh's First Appearance Meeting Key Highlights

At 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 18, the interest rate decision, economic summary, and dot plot will be announced; at 2:30 AM, Wosh will hold his first post-appointment press conference, marking the core turning point of this round of market trend.
The market generally expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with the focus not on whether to cut rates but on three key changes: policy wording, dot plot adjustments, and inflation expectations.

1. Policy wording: Pay attention to whether the statement removes dovish rate cut language; if dovish language is weakened, it signals a policy shift toward hawkishness.
2. Dot plot adjustments: divided into three directions

Moderate dovish: retain expectations of one rate cut this year, market rebounds somewhat;
Neutral leaning hawkish: cancel rate cut plans for the year, market faces downward pressure;
Strong hawkish: add new rate hike points, raise the rate central tendency, further amplify the bearish trend;
3. Inflation expectations: if the full-year inflation forecast is raised, it indicates a tightening of the easing cycle and a stabilization of interest rates;
4. Speech tone: Wosh is likely to weaken the guidance from the dot plot, tighten the balance sheet reduction pace, and prioritize raising inflation targets, with a higher probability of a cautious hawkish tone.

The current market has already moved into a downward breakout trend, and volatility will sharply increase during the evening to early morning when news is released. At this stage, it is advisable to follow the trend for long positions and avoid early bottom-fishing; after the speech tone and dot plot results are confirmed, the subsequent medium- and long-term trading directions will be finalized. Traders holding positions must ensure proper risk management and position defense. $BTC $ETH