Wednesday, Fed's Waller to appear, is tonight the start of a big bearish trend?

Today, during the day, weakness was extreme, the rebound lacked momentum, and it continued to fall to 645, with the strong daily trend coming to a halt, signaling an early release of a dovish Fed stance.
This rate market is expected to mostly hold steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the real market impact coming from Waller's speech wording, the dot plot, inflation, and rate expectations.
Currently, the scenario leans 70% towards a hawkish baseline, with a 30% chance of a mild dovish scenario, directly affecting global stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets across all categories.
If Waller strongly resists inflation and signals a hawkish stance beyond expectations, U.S. stocks could see a short-term correction of at least 3%-5%, the dollar would strengthen, Treasury yields would rise, risk assets would be sold off collectively, liquidity would tighten, institutional ETF funds would flow out, and crypto prices would come under pressure.
Bitcoin and Ethereum could see significant declines, with open interest long liquidations surging over 24 hours. Conversely, if a dovish tone prevails, with rate cut expectations warming, funds would flow back into risk assets, and BTC would rebound along with U.S. stocks.
Based on the current market reaction, the rally before the decision and the early realization after the decision are likely to be hawkish. Tonight, in the short term, follow the trend and go short first!
After Waller's speech and the transmission of expectations, if his tone is hawkish, then a long-term target of 560-530-480 is recommended.
If dovish, then go long to 685-730, then turn sharply bearish. Overall, I personally lean towards the former scenario of a big decline!
For tonight's trading, watch the resistance at 658-662 and support at 630-613.
A slight rebound around 652-650 can be a good short entry, with a look for a pullback to 630-618!
Regarding ETH, also consider supporting levels at 1650-1580.
Tonight is a night that will determine the strength of the crypto market, and it’s also Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo’s debut. The live broadcast is scheduled from 12:30 to 3:00 AM! First watch the World Cup, then watch Waller—brothers! Let’s do it together! #预测世界杯英格兰VS克罗地亚 #Gate现货交易量增幅全球第一 #SpaceX市值超越微软跻身全球前五 $BTC $ETH $SPCX