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Launching an L2 used to be an edge. It isn't anymore. The chains that survive from here will be the ones with distirbution.
1. 2024 made launching trivial. OP Stack, Arbitrum Orbit, Polygon CDK and zkStack turned a rollup into a config file, and the count went from ~40 to 90 in a year. Almost none of them differentiated from any other EVM chain.
So users did the obvious thing. Once incentives dried up there was no reason to stay, and the liquidity and the unique assets were already on Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum.
2. The empty chains are now unwinding: 4 L2s launched in 2026 against 29 shut down (chart from Grow the Pie below), and I expect that gap to widen.
3. L2s are still a strong technical choice. You get Ethereum's settlement and DA without standing up your own validator set. But the technology was never the moat. Distribution is.
That's why the model should still work for the Robinhoods and the LGs. They bring users with them, so the chain inherits demand on day one. For everyone else, a chain is just more empty blockspace in a market that already has too much.