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🔴In just 3 months, market expectations have completely reversed due to the Fed’s decision.
- March 2026: Most economists expect the Fed to CUT interest rates by the end of 2026 (62%).
- June 2026: The reversal signals the Fed will RAISE interest rates (55%), with rates expected to fall back to near 0.
Inflation has returned to ~3.5–3.8% due to the impact of the Hormuz conflict. Meanwhile, the labor market continues to grow by >2%.
There are no longer any reasons for expectations like in March.
Risk asset valuations will likely need to be updated to the new baseline case soon.