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#世界杯🏆2026 Scientists use supercomputers to predict the 2026 World Cup results: Spain is the most favored, while England may not escape the "second-place curse"
Researchers from the University of Liverpool's Management School built a model predicting that the 2026 FIFA World Cup final will be between England and Spain, with Spain having a better chance of lifting the trophy—repeating the history of recent major tournaments.
This supercomputer previously accurately predicted England's runner-up finish at the 2024 European Championship. Using the latest machine learning technology, this state-of-the-art prediction model can forecast match outcomes based on players' individual quality and their interactions on the field.
Benjamin Holmes, Ph.D., and Professor Ian McHale from the Sports Business Center, after running 1,000 simulations and considering all factors from physical fitness to crucial weather conditions, predicted each country's chances of winning the World Cup and reaching each knockout stage.
The supercomputer estimates England's winning probability at 17%, while Spain's is 26.1%. Other strong contenders include France (13.5%), the current champion Argentina in fourth place (12.4%), and Portugal (10.6%). The prediction is that England will win the group stage, with the most likely opponents being the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mexico, followed by a quarterfinal match against Brazil and a semifinal against Portugal.
Other domestic teams' hopes rest on Scotland, which the supercomputer predicts will finish third in the group, with an 11.8% chance of reaching the Round of 16.
The highly anticipated Golden Boot will be fiercely contested between Norway's Erling Haaland and Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal, both predicted to score 5.2 goals in the simulation.
Dr. Benjamin Holmes said, "Since the 2024 European Championship, we have significantly expanded our simulation model, adding many new features. The core idea remains the same: assessing players' abilities and their interactions with each other and with opponents." "We now include simulations of injuries, suspensions, and goal scorers. We even simulate match conditions, capturing crucial weather and altitude factors during this grand event spanning three host countries this year. While our model aligns with betting companies in ranking Spain as a favorite to win, Norway emerges as the biggest dark horse, with a 3.6% chance of winning in our simulations."
Are you relying on scientific supercomputing this time, or just intuition?
Researchers from the University of Liverpool's Management School built a model predicting that the 2026 FIFA World Cup final will be between England and Spain, with Spain more likely to lift the trophy—repeating the history of recent major tournaments.
This supercomputer previously accurately predicted England's runner-up finish at the 2024 European Championship. Using the latest machine learning technology, this advanced prediction model can forecast match outcomes based on players' individual quality and their interactions on the field.
Dr. Benjamin Holmes and Professor Ian McHale from the Sports Business Center ran 1,000 simulations, considering all factors from physical fitness to crucial weather conditions, predicting each country's chances of winning the World Cup and reaching each knockout stage.
The supercomputer estimates England's winning probability at 17%, while Spain's is 26.1%. Other strong contenders include France (13.5%), the current champion Argentina in fourth place (12.4%), and Portugal (10.6%). The prediction is that England will win the group stage, with the most likely opponents being the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mexico, followed by a quarter-final against Brazil and a semi-final against Portugal.
Other domestic teams' hopes rest with Scotland, which the supercomputer predicts will finish third in the group, with an 11.8% chance of reaching the round of 16.
The highly anticipated Golden Boot will be fiercely contested between Norway's Erling Haaland and Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal, both predicted to score 5.2 goals in the simulations.
Dr. Benjamin Holmes said, "Since the 2024 European Championship, we have significantly expanded our simulation model, adding many new features. The core idea remains the same: assessing players' abilities and how they interact with each other and with opponents." "We now include simulations of injuries, suspensions, and goal scorers. We even simulate match conditions, capturing crucial weather and altitude factors during this year's grand event across three host countries. While our model aligns with betting companies in ranking Spain as the favorite to win, Norway stands out as the biggest dark horse, with a 3.6% chance of winning in our simulations."
Are you relying on scientific supercomputing this time, or just intuition?