1. Current Price

Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,800, down approximately 0.4% in the past 24 hours. It rebounded to $67,000 in the early hours but quickly retreated, with the intraday low reaching $65,333.

2. Market Features: Narrow Range Before Decision

The market is entering a typical "wait-and-see mode ahead of the FOMC decision." The 4-hour chart shows consolidation within a range, volatility continues to compress, trading volume has significantly decreased, making it difficult to form a clear trend in the short term.

Key levels: Resistance at $66,000-$66,500, strong resistance zone at $66,200-$66,500; support at $65,000-$65,500. If the support at $65,454 is broken, downside potential opens.

3. Technical Outlook: Bears Have the Advantage

On the daily chart, the trend remains in a weak recovery after a decline, with the larger cycle still pointing downward. BTC is below the 50-day EMA ($70,351) and the 100-day EMA ( $73,084), facing supply pressure above during rebounds. RSI is at 43.5, below the 50 mark, indicating weak bullish momentum.

4. Key Variable: FOMC Decision (Early morning, June 18, Beijing time)

The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but the new Chair Powell's first appearance is the biggest variable:

· Hawkish signal → BTC may dip to $63,000-$64,000
· Dovish signal → Potential challenge to $67,000-$68,000

5. Risk Warning

Geopolitical factors: Iran's military accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement, weakening the risk appetite rebound previously driven by the US-Iran deal. The Bank of Japan raising rates to 1% and continuous net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs also suppress upward space.

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⚠ The above analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute investment advice. Volatility may increase at any time before the FOMC decision; please manage your positions carefully.