$BTC Bitcoin is hanging around 65700 right now. It dropped from about 66900 yesterday. The momentum just isn’t there. Tonight’s FOMC meeting is the big one. Everyone is waiting for that. So before the meeting you can expect price to just chop back and forth in a range.

Let me walk through the support levels from closest to furthest. The first real line in the sand is 65000 to 64800. Buyers have shown up there recently. If that breaks then we look at 64200 to 64000. That area was the launchpad for this whole bounce. If a 4‑hour candle closes below that zone then the bounce structure is basically dead. Further down you have the monthly strong support at 61800‑62000. And below that the critical bottom zone is 59000‑60000. That was the extreme low of this drop. Break that and the next stops are 56000 then 52000.

Now for resistance. Short‑term pressure sits at 66200‑66500. The hourly Bollinger middle band used to be support but now it’s flipped to resistance. Above that the 66750‑67300 area is the daily pivot. That’s exactly where price got rejected yesterday. The biggest medium‑term hurdle is 70800‑71100. That’s where the daily MA20 and the Fibonacci 0.786 line converge. If we close above that then the rebound has real legs. Beyond that the 73600‑73900 zone is heavy with institutional bags. You need a big volume spike to break that for a real trend reversal.

Technically the daily moving averages are all bearish aligned. The 20‑day EMA is at 66700. The 50‑day is at 70600. The 100‑day is at 73200. RSI is sitting between 42 and 49. That’s neutral‑bearish. Not oversold enough for a bounce. Not strong enough to push up. The MACD is actually above zero but the histogram bars keep shrinking. That tells me bulls aren’t adding fresh money. On the hourly chart price broke below the Bollinger middle band at 66000. RSI is 43.5 – below 50. So sellers have the upper hand for now.

Fundamentally the FOMC meeting is the elephant in the room. Rates are expected to stay unchanged. But the real focus is the dot plot and Powell’s tone. The May CPI came in at 4.2 percent. That pushed rate‑cut expectations all the way to 2027. If the Fed sounds hawkish tonight this whole bounce could just collapse. On the geopolitical side the US‑Iran deal looks calm on the surface but Israel is still active near southern Lebanon. That risk premium can come back any time. Also the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1 percent yesterday. The market took it quietly but the yen carry trade unwinding is a constant headache for leveraged assets.

So the big picture hasn’t changed. The downtrend is still intact. This bounce feels more like a oversold relief rally and a short squeeze. The key level to watch is 65000. If it holds we might grind sideways between 65000 and 67000 for a while. If it breaks then the downside opens up pretty fast. Before the FOMC announcement I expect mostly range‑bound noise. Don’t rush into anything.

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.