Spain suffers a major upset, sharp commentary on how World Cup betting methods have gone from solid to chaotic

Writing by: Alan, Biteye Content Team

Today is the fifth day after the 2026 USA-Mexico-Canada World Cup kickoff, and the tournament has just experienced its first upset since the start. The entire team, valued at 500 million euros and considered a favorite to win, Spain, was actually held to a 0-0 draw by Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper with a 50k-euro valuation. Netizens joked: How can a human foot possibly kick better than "Fodi’s foot"?

I want to ask friends who bet on Spain, the favorite to win: Are your heart and wallet okay?

Strong teams unstable, dark horses emerging, injury-time strikes—this 48-team World Cup has already slapped the "paper strength theory" in the face right after kickoff. In other words, underdog victories, beating the strong with the weak—perhaps that is the true charm of sports competition.

So here’s the question: Have you supported your favorite team or guessed scores in your friend group? Have you participated in betting either online or on compliant platforms?

In fact, the kickoff of the World Cup is not just a battle among 48 teams on the pitch, but also a showdown among several prediction products.

If you open Polymarket, you'll find it prominently placed in the top navigation with a gold football icon marking the World Cup entrance. Clicking further, the entire tournament’s matches, gameplay, matchups, and maps are laid out in a row.

Currently, there are roughly three different prediction methods for the World Cup: one is traditional official sports lottery; two is conventional online betting platforms; three is emerging crypto prediction markets, which can be further divided into more mature platforms like Polymarket @Polymarket, .fun @Kalshi, and Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz, as well as on-chain newcomers Opinion @predictdotfun and Predict.fun .

All are predicting the World Cup, seemingly answering the same question: who will win? But behind their product logic, transparency, compliance paths, and user experience, they are quite different.

Next, Biteye will give a thorough critique—from solid to weak—of the overall experience of betting across four different channels and multiple platforms for the 2026 World Cup.

Let’s start with the "from solid to weak" table

To avoid confusing everyone with jargon like odds, contracts, payout indices, we’ll rank from solid to weak based on five dimensions:

[Table or list of five dimensions, omitted here for brevity]

Brief critique in one sentence:

Polymarket is the trending search for World Cup odds, with Opinion close behind. Predict.fun is the most active World Cup event operator on the BNB Chain, Kalshi is a trading platform with a formal look, traditional betting platforms are well-established betting supermarkets, and sports lotteries are official-certified viewing supplements.

Odds expression: Do I understand what it’s selling?

If you’re new to World Cup betting, the odds on traditional betting platforms might confuse you.

Traditional betting platforms use classic odds language, like +450, +850, +1000. Veteran players might understand instantly, but new users may be stunned for a moment. These numbers look tempting, but why do I need to do such complicated math? Similarly, China’s sports lottery profits are essentially odds menus, which also require conversion—it's not an obvious market price.

Whether it’s the veteran prediction platform Polymarket, the event contract exchange Kalshi, or newcomers Opinion and Predict.fun, the advantage of prediction markets is that they don’t require converting odds or understanding a bunch of odds terminology. Instead, they turn the World Cup into a visible real-time probability curve.

For example, Spain 16¢, France 16¢, Portugal 11¢—these represent the market’s estimated chance of winning at about 16%, 16%, and 11%. If at this moment you support Spain and it ultimately wins, you could see a multiplier increase from 16% to 100%, roughly 6.17 times.

This odds language is very friendly for newcomers wanting to participate in World Cup predictions. It’s not necessarily more convenient for betting, but it’s easier to gauge market sentiment.

At the same time, this type of prediction market data is naturally suitable for media quoting because it turns subjective judgments like "which team is stronger" into real-time prices based on money votes.

This part is more complex and heavily depends on user habits. For dissemination ranking:

• Solid: Polymarket / Kalshi / Opinion / Predict.fun, probabilities as prices, best for spreading.

• Top-tier: /

• NPC: /

• Weak: traditional betting platforms / sports lotteries, odds menus are not friendly to newcomers.

Transaction transparency: Can I see how others are betting?

Understanding prices is just the first step. The real key is: how are these prices formed?

This is also the most lethal blow emerging prediction markets deliver to traditional betting operators. Although prediction market data doesn’t necessarily represent "truth," at least we can see how the market is trading.

Polymarket publicly displays prices, trading volume, order books, liquidity, price curves, and market heat. Kalshi, Opinion, and Predict.fun are similar, showing market data, transactions, and price changes. Compared to them, Kalshi’s data looks more like formal financial reports due to regulatory requirements, while Opinion and Predict.fun resemble complete event pages in on-chain projects.

Traditional betting platforms are different. Bettors can see payout indices or odds, but it’s hard to see how much actual trading occurs behind a specific odds, how funds flow, or how deep the market is. Traders mostly bet based on trust in the platform’s reputation. This isn’t to say they lack liquidity, but the real issue is that this liquidity isn’t transparent to ordinary users. It’s like eating delicious braised chicken but worrying whether it’s frozen pre-made food.

China’s sports lottery is under macro regulation, so it rarely has outrageous house edges or manipulations. But behind each odds, there’s an opaque black box that’s hard to see or gauge.

So, the critique here is simple:

• Solid: Polymarket / Kalshi / Opinion / Predict.fun, prediction markets are the foundation.

• Top-tier: /

• NPC: China Sports Lottery, official backing, large scale, but process is invisible.

• Weak: traditional betting platforms, complete black box.

Gameplay richness: Can I choose to bet on details I like?

If you’re good at creating chaos, traditional betting platforms are still the veterans.

Champion bets, handicaps, over/under, scores, half/full-time, corners, yellow cards, goal scorers, golden boot, parlay, same-game parlay, in-play betting, early cash-out… traditional betting platforms break almost every detail of the World Cup into products on their shelves, dazzling users.

This is also the strongest and most dangerous aspect of traditional betting: the more options, the more users feel "I understand at least one angle." But for betting platforms, the more detailed the options, the longer users stay, the higher the transaction frequency, and the more profit they make.

China’s sports lottery isn’t lacking either. During the World Cup, bets on champion, runner-up, win/draw/loss, score, total goals, half/full-time are enough to cover the most familiar betting needs of Chinese users.

In comparison, Kalshi is moving in this direction, starting to offer more single-match, over/under, both-team scoring event contracts.

Polymarket is more restrained, focusing on core markets like champion, qualification, single-match win/loss, such as, as of June 15, the prediction trading volume for the World Cup champion on Polymarket exceeded $2 billion. In contrast, liquidity for over/under and handicap markets per game is generally lower, and there are few traditional football parlay bets involving multiple matches.

Opinion and Predict.fun are more active on on-chain new platforms, both offering markets for champion, group stage, knockout, golden boot, assist king, etc.

Summary of this round:

• Solid: traditional betting platforms, a betting buffet.

• Top-tier: Opinion / Predict.fun, actively capturing market share.

• NPC: Kalshi, offering official packages / sports lotteries, sufficient for most.

• Weak: Polymarket, strong signature dishes but limited variety.

User access and compliance: How do I get in & can I get out?

This is especially important for Chinese-speaking users.

The advantage of China’s sports lottery is clear: compliant identity, familiar Chinese context, and you can see lottery outlets with signs in your daily life. But its downside is obvious: participation isn’t just a matter of opening a webpage; official channels still emphasize offline outlets.

Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun’s access logic is more Web3. Wallets, stablecoins, on-chain assets—relatively easy for those with crypto experience; but for ordinary fans, wallets, private keys, USDC, regional restrictions are barriers. Also, all three face the challenge of regulatory compliance for crypto prediction markets.

In contrast, Kalshi aligns more with the US regulated financial account model. Its rules are clear, focusing on regulated event contracts, but KYC, regional, and account requirements mean it’s not a product for all global users.

Traditional betting platforms seem accessible in many regions, but they come with many issues: regional restrictions, deposit/withdrawal risks, account risk controls, and uneven compliance. Even in mature markets like Europe and the US, Chinese users should proceed cautiously.

So, the most important questions are not which platform is the most exciting to bet on, but:

Where does the money come in? How are results settled? Can I withdraw my funds? Who do I contact if the platform has issues?

This is the summary for this round:

• Solid: China Sports Lottery, the most formal and familiar in Chinese-speaking regions, but requires offline channels.

• Top-tier: Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun, crypto-friendly, with some barriers for ordinary users, but compliance is under review.

• NPC: Kalshi, limited to US users, clear compliance.

• Weak: traditional betting platforms, with the highest risks in deposits, withdrawals, and compliance.

Activity incentives: Should I bet more for rewards?

As a new player in on-chain prediction markets, Predict.fun launched a $2 million special incentive campaign during the World Cup. It created the Predict Cup on the BNB Chain, offering generous prize pools, Fan Points, team lineups, leaderboards, and round-based rewards, making a series of on-chain World Cup fun activities.

This is very attractive to users: not only predicting match outcomes but also earning points, climbing rankings, and winning rewards.

Traditional betting platforms are also going all out for the World Cup, as it’s a rare four-year fan carnival, with traffic almost equal to revenue.

Meanwhile, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion still focus on the market itself: prices, transactions, odds, dissemination—without dedicated incentives for the World Cup.

Sports lotteries emphasize public welfare and rational betting. While they often run promotions, they are not suitable for promotional traffic in the Chinese context.

But beyond excitement, it’s worth asking: Am I enjoying the matches, or just trading for points? Am I looking at odds, or being pushed by leaderboards?

This round:

• Solid: Predict.fun, most aggressive World Cup-specific operations.

• Top-tier: Traditional betting platforms, during the World Cup golden period.

• NPC: Polymarket / Kalshi / Opinion, incentives are not the main selling point.

• Weak: Sports lotteries, emphasizing rationality and public welfare.

Summary

The 2026 World Cup has brought different product logics to the same table.

• China’s sports lottery says: The matches can be part of official public welfare lottery interactions.

• Traditional betting platforms say: The matches are highly mature entertainment products.

• Polymarket says: The matches are real-time fluctuating probability markets.

• Kalshi says: The matches are regulated event contracts.

• Opinion says: On-chain prediction markets can also be made into complete event pages.

• Predict.fun says: The World Cup isn’t just odds; it can also be an on-chain points game.

But what’s truly worth paying attention to is perhaps not who can replace whom, but that the odds market for the World Cup is evolving from closed odds products into an open, real-time, and communicable information market.

Sports are just the stage. The bigger business is that humans always want to price the future, to price their judgments.