Current price: 65,720 USDT, slight decline of 0.9% over 24 hours, yesterday’s short squeeze rally lacked follow-through, funds absorbed at high levels, entering a phase of oscillation and digestion; daily chart shows the long-term downtrend has not reversed, rebound is only a correction of oversold conditions, today’s focus is on the Federal Reserve meeting, mainly range-bound oscillation, pressure on rally attempts, light bullish bias on dips, strict leverage control to avoid news volatility.
I. Key Levels for Major Long/Short Positions (Precise Contract Zones)
Resistance levels (from near to far)
1. Intraday short-term first resistance: 66,800–67,300 (yesterday’s high, 4-hour Bollinger upper band, short-term selling pressure zone, key support/resistance for today)
2. Mid-term key resistance: 70,800–71,100 (daily MA20 + Fibonacci 0.786 resonance, whether the rebound can continue depends on this)
3. Strong trend reversal resistance: 73,600–73,900 (institutional trapped supply zone, volume confirmation needed to declare mid-term downtrend reversal)
Support levels (from near to far)
1. Intraday core support: 65,390 (Gamma Flip key level, failure to hold weakens short-term rebound structure)
2. Short-term defensive support: 64,800–65,000 (intraday buy zone, hold above for wide-range oscillation)
3. Rebound critical line: 64,000–64,200 (previous oscillation platform, 4-hour close below this invalidates the current rebound)
4. Monthly strong support: 61,800–62,000 (June low, ultimate bullish defense zone)
5. Extreme bottom zone: 59,000–60,000 (extreme low of this decline, break below triggers deep downward restart)
II. Multi-Timeframe Indicator Panorama
Daily Chart D1 (Medium to Long-Term Trend)
• RSI(14)=49.2, hovering below the 50 neutral line, not entering strong zone, only indicating a correction after decline, no trend reversal signals
• MACD: low position below zero line with a golden cross, but red bars shrinking, bearish momentum slightly weakening, spot buying lacks strength
• Moving averages: price under pressure from MA20/MA50/MA100, all in a bearish alignment, clear resistance above
• Capital flow: spot ETF continues net outflow, yesterday’s rally mainly driven by short covering, no long-term funds supporting bottom
4-hour H4 (Core Contract Trading Cycle)
• RSI retreated from overbought 62 to 51, bulls and bears rebalanced, short-term bullish momentum fading
• Bollinger Bands narrowing, price oscillating near the middle band, upper band at 67,200 resistance, lower band at 64,900 support
• K-line structure: slight higher lows, but higher highs keep declining, indicating oscillation correction, not a one-sided bullish structure
• Contract positions: short squeeze phase ended, open interest shrinking, bulls and bears disagreement reduced, volatility gradually converging, awaiting Fed news to break the deadlock
1-hour H1 (Intraday Short-Term Cycle)
Short-term bullish momentum continues to weaken, MACD red bars fully shortened, dual lines converging with a potential death cross, K-lines showing small bearish oscillation, overall intra-day pressure is weak, with selling pressure on rallies.
III. Two Market Path Scenarios
Path 1: Volume breakout continues rebound (low probability, requires double confirmation)
Confirmation conditions: 4-hour close above 67,300 with volume increase, Fed signals a dovish rate cut in the evening
• First take-profit target: 70,900–71,100
• Second take-profit target: 73,600–73,900
• Invalid signal: quick fall below 66,000 after breaking 67,300, indicating a false breakout and pull-up
Path 2: Under pressure, retreat (main intraday scenario, prior to news, favoring oscillation downward)
1. First support: 64,800–65,000 (intraday dip buy zone)
2. Second support: 64,000–64,200 (rebound support/resistance line)
Break risk: 4-hour close below 64,000, target drops directly to 61,800 zone
IV. Three Complete Contract Trading Strategies (Long/Short/Watch)
Strategy 1: Short-term low-buy strategy (buy on dips only, no chasing)
1. Entry conditions: price dips to 64,800–65,000, 1-hour candle shows a bullish close with decreasing volume, avoid early bottom fishing
2. Partial profit-taking: TP1 at 66,700 (reduce 50%); TP2 at 67,200 (close all)
3. Stop-loss: 64,500 (break below short-term support, invalidates bullish logic)
4. Risk-reward ratio: ≥2:1, do not open if not met
Strategy 2: Short-term high-sell strategy (sell on rally, avoid front-running top)
1. Entry conditions: price hits resistance at 66,800–67,300, 4-hour shows long upper shadow pattern with volume stagnation
2. Partial profit-taking: TP1 at 65,000 (reduce 50%); TP2 at 64,100 (close all)
3. Stop-loss: 67,800 (breaks above resistance, invalidates bearish logic)
4. Risk-reward ratio: ≥2:1
Strategy 3: Range-bound wait-and-see (prefer before news release)
Price remains stuck between 65,000–66,800 with low volume, avoid opening new positions; reduce holdings before Fed decision to avoid sudden large swings.
V. Hard Contract Risk Control Rules (Key today)
1. Leverage control: intraday leverage ≤8x, during news ≤5x, strictly avoid high leverage betting on news
2. Position management: risk per trade no more than 1% of total account, diversify positions, avoid full leverage on rate decision
3. Stop-loss discipline: set stop-loss at opening, do not manually move stops, do not hold losing positions, do not add to floating losses
4. Trading limit: stop trading after 2 consecutive stop-outs to prevent emotional counter-trend trades
5. News risk control: Fed meeting volatility can exceed 5%, reduce positions beforehand to lower liquidation risk
VI. Core Market Risks
1. Macro risk: Fed June meeting tonight, hawkish stance or high rates will push BTC below 64,000; only dovish signals can open rebound space, all current moves driven by news
2. Capital structure risk: current rebound driven solely by short covering, no spot inflow, rebound unlikely to sustain, no positive news means quick reversal
3. Intermarket risk: ETH, SOL move in tandem with BTC, altcoins more volatile when BTC weakens, synchronized pullback possible
4. Contract liquidation risk: frequent whipsaws around the Fed meeting, daily volatility over 5%, no stop-loss can trigger chain liquidations
5. Position pressure: large long-term trapped positions between 67,000–74,000, difficult to break through without #我的Gate交易时刻 massive funds.

BTC-2.18%

ETH-2.75%

SOL-2.64%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes