$BTC

$BTC
There are three news items this morning. All three are coming at the same time. And all three directly affect Bitcoin.
BTC is currently trading between 65,361 and 66,986. A 0.8% drop in the last 24 hours. But this small drop is misleading. Because the underlying picture shows the most important macro changes of recent weeks.
First news: The trade agreement between the EU and the US was approved in the European Parliament with 440 votes to 151.
This agreement was a consensus outlined for July 2025 and stalled for months due to political resistance on the European side. Now it has been approved. The key points are: The EU is removing all tariffs on US industrial goods. The US, on the other hand, is limiting tariffs on European goods to 15%. Cars and parts are included in this cap. Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products are under the 15% umbrella. The agreement has reached its July 4 target. Official approval from the 27 EU member states remains, and this process is ongoing. What does this mean for Bitcoin? Not directly, but indirectly and significantly. The potential tariff war between the US and Europe was one of the biggest structural risks to global inflation. This risk has been removed. Less trade friction means less cost pressure, less inflation. When inflation decreases, the Fed's room for maneuver opens up. This is positive for the crypto chain.
Second news: The framework agreement between the US and Iran is in effect. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Oil continues to fall.
I wrote extensively about this development in previous days. But today's picture added something. The agreement left its contentious elements to a 60-day negotiation process. The sanctions easing timetable, details of the nuclear program, and the ballistic missile issue are still open. This makes it possible, but not guaranteed, for the agreement to hold. Bitcoin is pricing this uncertainty between 65,000 and 67,000. It's not making a big move because there is optimism, but not complete confidence yet.
Third news: The FOMC meeting started today. The decision will be announced tomorrow.
Interest rates will remain unchanged. This is almost certain. But there are two things that are really important in this meeting.
Dot plot. A projection chart showing the Fed members' interest rate expectations for 2026, 2027, and the long term. At the March meeting, the median indicated a single rate cut for 2026. If this drops to zero, the market will instantly reprice it. If it goes up to two cuts, there will be a bullish reaction. This single chart could move the market by 3 to 5 percent in either direction tomorrow evening.
Kevin Warsh's language. This is Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman. He replaced Powell. Warsh is known as an advocate of tight monetary policy. But now he faces a different macroeconomic picture. The Iran agreement is reducing energy pressure. The EU trade agreement is preventing tariff inflation. Even whether he will remove the dot plot is being debated. Every word will be analyzed.
Now I'm looking at the technical chart.
Bearish alignment on the 15-minute chart. Strong uptrend on the 4-hour chart. Daily RSI is 42.09, between neutral and weak. But there is a daily MACD bottom divergence. The MACD histogram is rising while the price is making new lows. This is a medium-term bottom signal.

And the fundamental index chart says this: Bitcoin's fundamental indicators are forming rising lows since February. Liquidity and network growth metrics are recovering. The price is still stuck in a range, but the fundamental index is moving ahead of the price. This pattern is familiar at major turning points in history. The fundamental corrects first, the price follows.
I read this chart like this:
In the short term, tomorrow's FOMC decision will move the market. It's not about predicting this movement, it's about managing it. I'm not taking a large additional position. But I'm not closing my existing position either.
In the medium term, three pressures have eased simultaneously: the Iran risk, the trade war risk, and the energy-related inflation risk. These three together are removing the structural framework on Bitcoin. It's not a single catalyst. It's the simultaneous resolution of three separate pressures.
This is rare. I'm noticing this.
$59,000 continues to strengthen as the bottom of this cycle. An increased volume close above $67,000 will start correcting the daily MA structure. Until that chart changes, my plan remains unchanged.
I'm sticking to my plan. As always.

#MyGateTradeStory
⚠️ Not financial advice.