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It makes sense why $STRC does not trade en-par even purely mathematically, ignoring all other factors.
Math behind $STRC in short:
- $STRC sits at $93.3 and pays 11.5% dividend
- $SATA sits at $100 (en par) and pays 13% dividend
If you buy $STRC here, you get 12.33% effective yield out of it once it re-pegs (which is a risk-premium itself people want probably some extra yield for).
So if $STRC goes down, closer to $89, it now pays out 13% yield as well (this ignores the implied risk-premium you pay of course based on your own preference). If $STRC goes back up to $100, it would still pay 1.75% less than SATA (which could be outbalanced by $MSTR's higher overall trust score).
On July 1st (or close before) they'll announce the next months dividend rate and I assume it's 12-13%. Until then, based on math the pico floor should be around $88.5; then once dividend rate is higher, repeg.
Disclaimer: Theoretical thought experiment in a vacuum. Excludes market volatility & trust risks (BTC/MSTR). Not meant to positive or negative leaning so dont interpret any of it as a buy/sell signal. Just wanted to bring some real data/reason into the debate I see on X.