Gold tops $4,300 as it climbs, while BTC rises in tandem: How does the US-Iran agreement reshape the logic behind safe-haven assets?

On June 14th, the United States announced the conclusion of a ceasefire memorandum of understanding with Iran, with the official signing ceremony scheduled for June 19th in Switzerland. The core contents of the agreement include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, extending the ceasefire for 60 days, and initiating 60-day negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. The implementation of this geopolitical event has triggered a rare resonance in global asset markets—spot gold prices have risen for three consecutive trading days, closing on June 15th with a surge of $90.15 to $4,308.83 per ounce, a 2.14% increase; on June 16th, during Asian market hours, the rally continued, trading around $4,314 per ounce. Meanwhile, Bitcoin closed at $66,184 on June 16th, up 1.0% over 24 hours.

This synchronized rise is notable because it breaks the long-standing market perception of the relationship between these two asset classes. Under traditional frameworks, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin is unstable—gold is a millennium-long safe haven asset, while Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” exhibits very different volatility characteristics. Behind this resonance lies a clear macro transmission chain: US-Iran agreement → expectations of reopening the Strait of Hormuz → sharp drop in oil prices → easing inflation pressures → reduced Fed rate hike expectations → weakening dollar → simultaneous support for gold and Bitcoin.

Why did oil prices plummet sharply after the agreement was reached?

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy transportation chokepoint, through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies are transported during normal times. Since the U.S. airstrike on Iran on February 28, the strait has effectively been blocked, forcing the interruption of approximately 14 million barrels per day of capacity. During the conflict, Brent crude oil prices peaked at around $120 per barrel, while before the conflict, prices were slightly below $70 per barrel.

After the announcement of the US-Iran agreement, international oil prices plummeted. Brent crude fell 4.8% to $83.18 per barrel, and U.S. crude dropped 5.6% to $80.13; on July delivery, WTI futures on the NYMEX declined 4.87% on the 15th, closing at $80.75 per barrel. On June 16th, Brent crude rebounded slightly by 0.3% to $83.42 per barrel, and WTI rebounded 0.3% to $81.12 per barrel.

However, market opinions differ on whether oil prices can sustain at low levels. Analysts warn that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks to six months, and with a backlog of oil tankers waiting to pass, short-term transportation may not return to pre-conflict levels. Saudi Aramco’s CEO also warned that market stability might not be restored until 2027. In other words, the current decline in oil prices is more “emotion-driven” selling rather than a fundamental supply improvement.

How does the decline in oil prices transmit to inflation expectations and rate hike expectations?

Oil prices are one of the most important input variables for global inflation. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on June 10th showed that the U.S. CPI in May rose 4.2% year-over-year, higher than April’s 3.8%, reaching the highest level since May 2023, with energy prices being the main driver. During the ongoing US-Iran conflict, a negative transmission chain has formed: “geopolitical tension → rising oil prices → sticky inflation → rising Fed rate hike expectations → increasing real interest rates → pressure on gold prices.”

The reverse operation of this logic constitutes the core driving force behind this round of gold and Bitcoin rallies. As the US-Iran agreement is finalized and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, international oil prices have fallen sharply, significantly easing energy-driven inflation pressures. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have also cooled. The CME FedWatch tool shows that after the US-Iran framework agreement, traders reduced the probability of a December rate hike from nearly 70% last week to 58%.

The dollar index has also weakened, falling 0.2% to 99.57 on Monday. For gold priced in dollars, a weaker dollar directly reduces the holding costs for non-dollar investors; for Bitcoin, the decline in rate hike expectations implies a marginal improvement in liquidity conditions, alleviating valuation pressures on risk assets.

The logic behind gold’s rise: from geopolitical risk premiums to rate expectation recovery

The core feature of this round of gold rally is a systematic shift in pricing logic.

During the ongoing US-Iran conflict, geopolitical risk did not serve as a boost for gold prices but rather as a major negative factor. The escalation of conflict pushed oil prices higher → increased inflation → strengthened rate hike expectations → rising real interest rates → increased holding costs for gold, creating a transmission chain that caused gold to decline during the conflict. On June 11th, London spot gold prices dipped to $4,024 per ounce, about 28% below the year's high, temporarily wiping out all gains for the year and turning negative.

The implementation of the US-Iran agreement reversed this logic. Falling oil prices eased inflation pressures, rate hike expectations cooled, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, and the marginal opportunity cost of holding gold decreased. Meanwhile, gold prices previously dipped to around $4,000, with strong technical support, triggering short covering and bottom-fishing. Multiple positive factors resonated, driving a rapid rebound—on June 15th, gold briefly broke through $4,360, gaining over 3.5%.

However, most institutions believe that a sustained upward trend in gold prices in the short term is unlikely. The key event is the Fed’s policy meeting on June 16-17. Although market expectations are that interest rates will likely remain at 3.50%-3.75%, the stickiness of core U.S. inflation and hawkish language in the statement or dot plot could reverse this optimism. In a high-interest-rate environment, gold prices are expected to fluctuate broadly between $4,000 and $4,800 in the near term.

The logic behind Bitcoin’s rise: short squeeze or fundamental reversal?

Bitcoin’s rally shares some commonalities with gold but also exhibits significant differences.

From the commonalities perspective, the decline in rate hike expectations is also a core positive for Bitcoin. Expectations of the Fed maintaining or even cutting rates imply improved market liquidity and increased risk appetite, supporting risk assets like cryptocurrencies. After the US-Iran agreement news, Bitcoin briefly surged past $65,000.

However, structurally, Bitcoin’s current rally differs fundamentally from gold. Contract market data shows that over 70% of the 24-hour liquidation volume was short positions. This suggests that this rebound is more akin to a “short squeeze” after negative sentiment has been exhausted, rather than a trend reversal driven by fundamentals. The rise in Bitcoin is not due to a systemic influx of new funds but rather forced liquidations of short positions under the shock of the agreement news.

Additionally, the synchronized rise of Bitcoin and gold reflects market ambivalence. On one hand, the market bets on falling inflation and improved liquidity—favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin; on the other hand, concerns about potential setbacks in the agreement’s implementation drive funds into gold for safety. The simultaneous pricing of these contradictory risks indicates a high implied uncertainty premium in current asset prices.

Is the synchronized rally of gold and Bitcoin a new narrative for safe-haven assets or a short-term pulse?

The simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin has sparked renewed discussion about the relationship between these two asset classes.

Historical data shows that, since 2026, the relationship between gold and Bitcoin has generally exhibited a “divergent coexistence”: gold strengthening its traditional safe-haven status, while Bitcoin transitions toward a mature institutional asset. However, recent synchronized movements suggest that under certain macro shocks, the pricing logic of both assets may temporarily converge—when the same macro variable (such as rate hike expectations) becomes a core driver for both, their directional correlation can become significantly stronger.

But their intrinsic differences should not be overlooked. Gold’s rise is more driven by the recovery of rate expectations and declining real interest rates, representing a “cost-side” improvement; Bitcoin’s rise is more driven by short covering and marginal risk appetite recovery, representing an “emotion-side” rebound. Their driving forces differ in hierarchy and sustainability—changes in rate expectations are slow variables, while short covering is a one-off fast variable.

This simultaneous strengthening of gold and Bitcoin is more likely a “event-driven pulse rally” rather than a long-term convergence of their pricing logic. The key factors influencing their future trajectories remain the substantive shift in Fed monetary policy and the implementation of the US-Iran agreement.

Why might the implementation risks of the US-Iran agreement become the biggest variable for the market going forward?

Reaching an agreement does not mean risk elimination. The core uncertainty currently lies in the gap between “political signing” and “actual enforcement” of the agreement.

First, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not an instant process. Mines need to be cleared, which could take weeks to six months. Global oil inventories have been heavily depleted during the long interruption, and replenishment will take time. Even if a ceasefire is maintained, normal shipping operations may still take months to resume.

Second, the memorandum of understanding is essentially a 60-day temporary arrangement. The final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program remains to be negotiated. Iran’s deputy foreign minister has explicitly stated that if the other side “defaults,” Tehran will take corresponding measures. Israel’s pre-agreement raid on Lebanon also hints that the trigger for Middle East conflicts has not been truly dismantled.

Third, market optimism about oil prices may be overly premature. Senior energy strategist at ABN Amro pointed out that a comprehensive peace agreement may still be a long way off. Any friction in the implementation process could cause oil prices to rebound, reigniting inflation pressures and raising rate hike expectations—then the synchronized rise of gold and Bitcoin would face a reversal.

Summary

The US-Iran agreement, through the transmission chain of “oil prices falling → inflation cooling → rate hike expectations receding,” provides macro support for both gold and Bitcoin. Gold’s rise is mainly driven by the recovery of rate expectations and the reduction in holding costs, while Bitcoin’s rise is more driven by short covering and marginal risk appetite improvement. The simultaneous strengthening of both assets is fundamentally a market pricing the same macro variables from different dimensions, rather than a structural reconfiguration of safe-haven narratives. The key variables for future trends are: the policy signals from the June Fed meeting, the implementation of the US-Iran agreement, and the actual pace of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

FAQ

Q1: What is the core driver behind the continuous rise of gold?

The US-Iran agreement led to a sharp drop in oil prices, easing global input-driven inflation pressures. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes subsequently declined, the dollar weakened, and gold’s holding costs decreased. Additionally, gold prices previously oversold triggered short covering and bottom-fishing. Multiple factors resonated to push gold prices higher.

Q2: Why does Bitcoin rise in tandem with gold?

The decline in rate hike expectations implies an improvement in liquidity conditions, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. Moreover, the agreement news triggered massive short liquidations in the futures market, with short covering further boosting prices.

Q3: Is the synchronized rise of gold and Bitcoin a long-term trend?

Currently, it is more likely a “event-driven pulse rally.” Gold’s driver stems from slow-moving rate expectation recovery, while Bitcoin’s is more from quick short covering. Their sustainability differs—true trend changes depend on a substantive shift in Fed monetary policy and agreement implementation.

Q4: What are the implementation risks of the US-Iran agreement?

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz involves mine clearance, which could take weeks to six months; the agreement is a 60-day temporary measure, with final negotiations pending; factors like Israel’s pre-agreement strikes and Iran’s potential “default” pose risks.

Q5: What do the Fed’s policy meetings mean for gold and Bitcoin?

The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is crucial. While markets expect rates to stay at 3.50%-3.75%, hawkish language or dot plot adjustments could reverse this outlook. A dovish stance might further boost both assets, while a hawkish tone could suppress gains.