U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Memorandum Finalized: Brent Crude Falls Below $85, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise

The US and Iran finalized a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MoU) on June 15, calling for the immediate lifting of the maritime blockade against Iran. The signing is expected to take place officially in Geneva, Switzerland on the 19th. The market expects additional room for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with liquidity expectations in the crypto market improving in tandem.
(Background recap: Bitcoin surged to $67,300, Ethereum up 4.6%! “107k liquidations totaling $489 million” — bloodbath for the shorts!)
(Additional background: Bitcoin’s strength pushed it past $67,000, and Ethereum climbed above $1,800! Nearly $600 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with 110,000 people cleared out)

The US-Iran ceasefire MoU was formally finalized on the evening of June 15. On the 15th, the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) of Iran confirmed that Tehran and Washington had completed the memorandum text. The agreement includes “an immediate and permanent halt to war and military actions on all fronts, including Lebanon,” as well as “the immediate and comprehensive lifting of the naval blockade targeting Iran.”

With mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, the memorandum is expected to be officially signed in Geneva, Switzerland on June 19.

Hormuz Reopens, Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Heat Up

After the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran immediately blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jumped from normal levels all the way to $120 per barrel, keeping global inflation elevated. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) caught in a dilemma, should it raise rates to curb inflation, or cut rates to save the economy?

After the ceasefire message landed, oil prices have recently fallen back to under $85 per barrel. Analysts point out that the drop in oil prices sharply eases imported inflation pressures, thereby expanding the Fed’s policy room to cut rates.

On the 15th, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the next round of talks would begin immediately after the signing of the Geneva memorandum, with the goal of “permanently ending the aggression of the US and Israel toward Iran.”

First batch of tankers breaks through after the ceasefire

According to reports from overseas media, a total of five Iranian ships—including 3 oil cargo vessels and 2 civilian supply ships—that had been blocked for months successfully crossed the US Navy’s defenses and entered international waters last night, taking advantage of the memorandum being finalized. Less than 24 hours after the deal was reached, a gap in the blockade has already opened.

These ships were previously forced to remain stuck for several months due to the US maritime blockade actions against Iranian shipping, but now they can finally sail successfully.