#BlackRockReducesBTCIncreasesETH

Bitcoin Has Been Toppling the Top 100 Altcoins Since 2020, but Charts Show More Pressure Until July

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
has outperformed nearly all of the top 100 altcoins since 2020, and current chart data indicate that the altcoin market could still decline by nearly 50%.

The total altcoin market capitalization, recorded as TOTAL2, is currently trading around US$864 billion after a sharp decline over the past week. The following two charts explain why this pressure could continue.

Bitcoin Outperforms the Top 100 Altcoins Since 2020 with a Wide Margin

The first chart indexes the top 100 coins of 2020 to a value of 100. This chart calculates Bitcoin’s price in US dollars and each altcoin in Bitcoin value.

From that starting point, the BTC line rises toward 1,000 on a logarithmic scale. Meanwhile, most altcoins have actually fallen from 100 to 10, 1, or even lower. This gap shows that many leading altcoins have lost 90% to 99% of their value against Bitcoin. Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) records the most extreme decline on this chart.

This measurement approach is important because it incorporates a opportunity cost perspective. Holding most altcoins means their performance is worse compared to just holding Bitcoin for over five years. This chart also shows that coin selection rarely helps. Even well-known projects struggle to maintain value when compared to Bitcoin.

Some names have managed to stay close to the initial line. However, overall, most holders who missed out on BTC and chose these surviving altcoins have experienced losses over the years.

The current correction does not reverse this trend. Bitcoin is trading around US$61,228, down about 2% in a day and roughly 44% over the past year. Meanwhile, altcoins have experienced sharper declines. In the last 30 days, BTC has fallen about 24%, while Ethereum
ETHUSD
has lost around 31%.

Total Market Capitalization Could Drop to US$436 Billion by July

The second chart shows TOTAL2 on a weekly timeframe with three cycle peaks. The latest peak is at US$1.77 trillion.

History provides two reference declines. The 2018 bear market fell 92% over 49 weeks, while the decline from 2021 to 2022 dropped 75% in 31 weeks.

On average, these movements lasted about 40 weeks. If the latest 75% decline is applied from the US$1.77 trillion peak, the projected bottom for leading projects would be around US$436 billion.

Currently, TOTAL2 stands at US$864.73 billion, down from the US$942.62 billion level just broken. The green support area around US$494.05 billion previously served as the cycle’s previous low.

If the price drops to US$436 billion, that support level will be broken and the market will test the 2022 bottom of US$427.57 billion again. This target indicates a potential further decline of nearly 50% from the current price.

Timing calculations suggest this level will be reached around mid-July 2026, about 40 weeks from the peak. The increasing dominance of Bitcoin remains a key factor pulling capital out of altcoins.

Previous cycles have never guaranteed future results. The flow of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and broader macroeconomic conditions could accelerate or prolong this market movement.

A weekly rebound back to US$942.62 billion would weaken this bearish scenario. Until then, market structure still favors lower prices and delays the altcoin season.