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Bank of America warns that multiple signals are triggering a bear market in U.S. stocks

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Jinse Finance reported that on June 9, Bank of America Securities said investors should remain cautious about U.S. stocks, as more and more bear-market signals indicate that the market is nearing a top. In a report dated June 5, the strategist team led by Savita Subramanian wrote that, at present, about 70% of bear-market signals have already been triggered, consistent with the average levels during historical market peaks. The S&P 500 index shows that 17 of 20 valuation metrics indicate “statistically significant overvaluation,” with 8 metrics even exceeding levels seen during the tech bubble. In addition, high P/E stocks have outperformed undervalued stocks by a wide margin, which the strategists view as a sign of “excessive speculation.” Within the technology sector, the gap between the best and worst-performing quintiles has widened to the highest level since February 2000. The S&P 500 index’s strong performance “has masked sharp internal divergence.” Over the past three months, the return gap between the top 10% and bottom 10% of index constituents has risen to the highest level in the post-pandemic era. Some technology stocks still have healthy fundamentals; however, Subramanian noted: “Cash flow conversion rates have stalled. The supply of investment-grade bonds and stocks has increased. The proportion of market capitalization spent on share buybacks has declined. And for mega-scale cloud computing companies, capital expenditures as a share of operating cash flow are expected to approach 100% by the end of the year, up from 40% in 2023.”
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