Opinion: The main reason for Bitcoin's decline is rising inflation, not concerns over Strategy's reduction.

BlockBeats News, June 8 — 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said that the main reason Bitcoin recently fell below $60,000 is not market concerns about Strategy selling Bitcoin, but rather that after U.S. inflation picked up again, institutional investors have continued to withdraw funds through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Thielen noted that since the U.S. April CPI data came in above expectations on May 12, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative net outflows of about $5.4 billion, while Strategy, in the same period, actually increased its Bitcoin holdings by about $2 billion, making it one of the few major net buyers in the market. He believes the market has misjudged the drivers behind this round of decline: “The problem is not with Strategy.”

10x Research expects that the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. May CPI could rise to 4.3%, higher than the market expectation of 4.2%. If the data released on Wednesday is higher than 4%, it may further reinforce market concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high or even resume rate hikes, thereby continuing to weigh on the performance of risk assets.

Although Bitcoin’s short-term technicals have already entered the oversold region and a rebound cannot be ruled out, if inflation data continues to come in above expectations, an upswing may be difficult to sustain. In addition, stablecoin net outflows were about $1.7 billion last week, with total outflows of $5.5 billion over the past month. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen significantly, showing that funds are still leaving the crypto market.

He emphasized that the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs remains the most critical indicator for judging the outlook: “What pushes prices is institutional ETF capital, not market narratives.”